Soeren Kern on Europe’s Alarming New Migrant Crisis

Soeren Kern, a Middle East Forum Writing Fellow and Spain-based security analyst, spoke to a June 16^th Middle East Forum Webinar (video) about Europe’s migration crisis, and what it portends for the future of the continent. The following is a summary of Kern’s remarks:

Various factors are triggering the flood of migrants to Europe this year, which has already surpassed the 300,000 that arrived last year. Primarily males in their mid-twenties, this year’s migrants comprise Arabs, Afghans, Iraqis, Pakistanis, Northeast Africans, and Sub-Saharan Africans. A U.N. official commented that there are “over 20 million migrants, many of them Muslim, waiting at the doorstep of Europe.”

The mild winter in Europe, coupled with the economic chaos in Libya and Sudan, has contributed to this increase. Enticing images of the West’s standard of living beamed onto social media and the internet and accessed by Sub-Saharan Africa drives economic migrants who, having lost hope in their own countries, seek out smugglers to take them on the dangerous crossing. Reports of humanitarian non-governmental organizations (NGO’s) rescuing migrants from the Mediterranean Sea create a “pull effect” that encourages migrants to risk their lives. Moreover, NGO’s take advantage of a European Union (EU) law that makes it difficult to deport migrants once they have reached a European port. In February, the number of Tunisians and sub-Saharan Africans trying to reach Italy and Greece spiked after the Tunisian president announced that sub-Saharan Africans threatened “Tunisia’s national identity.” Consequently, Tunisia has replaced Libya as “the main departure point for Mediterranean crossings.”

European politicians divided over treatment of illegal immigration have exacerbated the migrant crisis. The United Kingdom’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak recently proclaimed that the British government will stop small boat arrivals across the English Channel. “They’re expecting 56,000 small boats to cross the English Channel in 2023, and they’re expecting around 140,000 asylum seekers.” But despite the British government’s proclamation, the U.K. received “one million net migrants” last year alone, indicating that Sunak has neither the “will [n]or ability” to follow through. The U.K. is a desired destination because its lack of a national identification requirement enables migrants to become part of an underground economy. Albanians, who mainly work in the construction industry, are also active in criminal activities. In the U.K., Albanians deal drugs, and its gangs in Spain rob banks, stores, and wealthy private homes.

Spain’s migrant crisis is attributable to Morocco, which extracts concessions from Spain to limit mass migration from Morocco’s shores. Regardless of the recent deal negotiated between the two countries, if the socialists lose and conservatives come to power in Spain’s upcoming elections, Morocco will likely unleash more migration, presumably to extract yet more concessions. Turkey, whose four million migrants are the largest refugee population in the world, signed a migrant deal with the EU in 2016 in which Turkey received six billion euros to stop migration from Turkey into Greece. In addition, the EU is granting Turkish nationals “visa-free travel to the EU,” — an outcome “politically unpalatable” to many European countries.

The EU’s Commissioner for Migration, one of many political leaders delivering a mixed message, recently announced the importance of mass migration in light of the continent’s declining demographics. Humanitarians and multiculturalists embrace the migration cause. Pro-migrant progressive activists caught up in the “climate change” movement justify the need to accept “climate migration” as its consequence.

The EU recently entered into an agreement with its member states to process asylum seekers more quickly at the borders as a means of controlling the crisis. The intention is to relocate 30,000 migrants a year from Greece and Italy, hardest hit by the flood of migrants, to other EU countries such as Poland and Hungary, which oppose the plan. Poland and Hungary claim they are already inundated with migrants fleeing Ukraine’s war with Russia. Italy wants a “mandatory relocation of migrants,” but the EU plan is unlikely to meet approval in the European Parliament because the EU ultimately wants to “force” Poland and Hungary to forego payment and take in migrants.

In addition to the EU “brib[ing] foreign governments,” agencies such as Frontex are increasing border enforcement via naval sea patrols. Collectively, the EU is incapable of handling the migration crisis, leaving countries such as Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Poland, and Spain to craft their own solutions by constructing physical border walls or fences. The reality is that despite efforts to stem the flow, overwhelming numbers make it impossible to stop the continuous waves of migrants.

Unlike the mass migration occurring at the U.S. southern border, where the majority of Latin Americans crossing are Roman Catholic Christians, Europe’s mass migration comprises people with an Eastern and Islamic background who have a worldview at odds with the Judeo-Christian foundation of Europe. Assimilating into the host culture is problematic for most migrants, many of whom are illiterate even in their own language and find learning a European language too difficult. Islamist and fundamentalist Salafist groups prey on frustrated and angry Muslim youths who are incapable or unwilling to integrate. There has been an increase in sexual crimes and homicides and a precipitous rise in antisemitism and attacks on churches. Instead of reporting on jihadist attacks, the mainstream media provide cover for attackers by remaining silent, fearing accusations of “Islamophobia” or attributing the cause to “psychological problems,” but never to Islamism or jihad.

Islamist organizations such as the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) have infiltrated the EU and European governments and exert influence and control over European media. The EU, under the MB’s influence, has even hired an “Islamophobia czar,” making any criticism of the mass migrants’ Islamization of Europe almost impossible. Notwithstanding this, more effective counter-terrorism policy has led to a decline in jihadi attacks in Europe.

As a result of the onslaught, there is a rise in populist or “civilizationist” parties supported by those who believe in traditional culture and personal liberty, but see their concerns about a disappearing pro-Western way of life disregarded and even disparaged by the elite. One such party, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), is now the country’s second largest party. When populist parties raise the issue of migration and the negative influence of migrants who do not assimilate to the host country’s values, government-funded media outlets dishonestly portray these parties as racist and “Islamophobic.” Populist bloggers in Europe post information online and generate hundreds of thousands of subscribers. In Germany, the government tried to shut down these sites, but German courts ruled in favor of the bloggers.

In addition to their dishonest portrayal in the media, a problem hampering AfD and the civilizationist National Rally party in France is that they have lost “credibility” over their support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Vox conservative political party in Spain, with no connection to Russia, is supported by 15 percent of the population, but the problem for all civilizationist parties is that they do not garner enough votes to gain power. The Vox party joined a coalition government whose priority is making the streets safer, but it is unwilling to “crack down” on mass migration. The liberal Spanish media have branded Vox as the party of neo-Nazis and bigots, when in fact the party’s platform champions supporting the constitution, protecting borders, and upholding a just system of law and order.

Although the erosion of European culture has been ongoing for decades, the continent is being permanently changed with the unabated flood of Muslim migrants, propelled along by the lack of political will to stop it. Any program that would interrupt the migration momentum would require “mass economic support to sub-Saharan Africa,” which “is not going to happen.” Absent a Marshall Plan for Africa and Afghanistan, “this is really unstoppable.” Over the next fifteen years or so, if Germany sustains its current migration level, it will be almost twenty percent Muslim. This demographic shift will irrevocably strengthen the presence of Sharia law, which runs “parallel” to Europe’s democratic order. “It’s a very sad prognosis for the future of Europe and for the future of Judeo-Christian culture on this continent.”