As Syria’s conflict enters its 14th year, analysts say a permanent political resolution for the war-torn country remains elusive.
Despite gradually recapturing most of the territory previously held by anti-government rebels, forces loyal to the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and their Russian and Iranian allies remain engaged in several battles, particularly in the northwestern part of the country, where rebels and Turkish-backed groups still control some territories.
In the northeast, U.S.-backed Kurdish-led forces control a large swath of territory, some of which they liberated from the Islamic State terror group.
“It is hard to imagine a sustainable political resolution in Syria while the fighting is still raging,” said John Saleh, a Washington-based Syria researcher.
“The complex nature of the Syrian conflict makes it extremely challenging to find viable solutions. This is a multifaceted war, and ending it requires an international consensus, which is clearly hard to get,” he told VOA.
Protest Becomes Civil War
A protest movement that started in 2011 against the Assad regime quickly turned into a civil war that has killed more than 300,000 people and displaced more than 13 million people at home and abroad, according to the United Nations. Other war monitors, including the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, put the death toll at 500,000.
The United Nations said this week that 16.7 million people inside Syria need humanitarian assistance.
“More than 90 percent now live in poverty, the economy is in free fall amid tightening sanctions, and increased lawlessness is fueling predatory practices and extortion by armed forces and militia,” said Paulo Pinheiro, chairperson of the U.N. Independent International Commission of Inquiry for Syria.
The commission said in a report released this week that in recent months, the country has experienced a wave of violence not seen since 2020, warning that parties to the conflict have carried out attacks against civilians and infrastructure that amount to war crimes.
U.N.-led Efforts
Last week, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for bringing an end to the war through the implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254. Adopted in 2015, it aims to end the Syrian conflict by pursuing a political transition. The U.N. also has sponsored several rounds of talks between government and opposition representatives with the objective of drafting a new constitution for the country.
But David Adesnik, director of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said U.N.-led peace talks on Syria have not shown any signs of viability in recent years.
“The regime is content to create the illusion of cooperation by having the talks drag on endlessly. Assad feels no real pressure to bend after the Arab League welcomed him back into the fold, despite his continuing atrocities and total lack of contrition,” he told VOA.
Last year, the Arab League readmitted Syria into the regional bloc after a suspension of nearly 12 years over the Assad government’s brutal crackdown on antigovernment protesters in 2011. Several Arab countries in the region also have restored ties with Assad in recent years, including Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and others.
“Almost all Arab countries have abandoned U.N.- and Western-led efforts to advance change in Damascus, whether through constitutional reform or isolation,” said Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.
The Captagon Factor
More than a decade of conflict has shattered Syria’s economy, which has led to a flourishing enterprise that depends on drug trafficking and other illicit activities.
As a result, experts say the country, particularly regime-held areas, has become a regional hub for the production and smuggling of Captagon, which is a cheaply produced, addictive, amphetamine-like drug.
“When we talk about a political settlement — particularly under U.N. Resolution 2254 — in Syria, countering illicit networks affiliated with the regime should be part of the conversation,” said Caroline Rose, a senior analyst at the New Lines Institute.
“However, it shouldn’t be perceived as the ‘gateway’ or initial step that can lead to greater progress towards a settlement,” Rose told VOA. “Captagon has been used as a low-hanging fruit in normalization discussions, which has proved to be a failed tactic, as the regime has not made any meaningful concessions in reducing its role in the trade or stemming the flow.”
Adesnik of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies shared similar views.
“The Jordanians have learned an unpleasant lesson about Arab efforts to reconcile with Damascus,” he said. “What Amman wanted most was an end to Captagon trafficking, which has only gotten worse while the Syria-Jordan border region has become more violent.”
With Russia, a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, blocking resolutions that target the Syrian regime and given the defeat of antigovernment rebels, “there is little prospect of solving the Syria crisis except on Assad’s terms,” Adesnik said.
“But this shouldn’t mean giving up,” he said. “The U.S. and Europe should toughen sanctions and do whatever they can to deprive Assad of the revenue to cause more damage.”
