On April 1, 2024, Israel killed Mohammad-Reza Zahedi, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general tasked to coordinate Iran’s proxies in the Levant. Tehran responded with an hours-long attack consisting of approximately 300 drones and missiles. Contrary to the subsequent spin, Iranian authorities intended their barrage to succeed, but Israeli air defenses and the quick actions of neighboring states protected the Jewish state. The Iranian attack came despite President Joe Biden’s October 10, 2023 red line. “To any country, any organization, anyone thinking of taking advantage of this situation, I have one word: Don’t.”
After the Iranian attack, Biden turned his warning to Israel. He told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, “You got a win. Take the win.” Israel responded with a small attack against Russian-made S-300 air defense systems in Esfahan province.
The White House may believe it de-escalated the crisis but, in reality, it guaranteed greater aggression in the future. In Washington, the prevailing wisdom is that the episode reinforced deterrence by demonstrating the limits of Iran’s capabilities while Israel simultaneously showed it can strike targets with precision deep inside Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will be hesitant to launch another useless attack, the logic goes, since it will only invite retaliation.
The problem with such logic is that it rests on projecting American and Israeli values on Iran. The United States and Israel can ensure deterrence by taking away what the enemy values, not what Washington and Jerusalem value. Israel succeeded in imposing a greater cost on Iran by using a much smaller force. For a rational observer, this would deter Iran. Khamenei and his regime instead prioritize pride and fear humiliation more than they care for military equipment. Domestic politics also matter. Even though Iran is a dictatorship, Khamenei must appear strong as the knives of would-be successors are always out. From Khamenei’s standpoint, Iran can always rebuild its military capabilities, but overcoming humiliation by simply absorbing an Israeli attack without response is too great a price.
Between 10 to 20 percent of Iranians support the regime; these are Khamenei’s base. Their support rests in part on their belief that the Islamic Republic can defeat both America and Israel. The slogan “America cannot do a damn thing” remains a pillar of the regime’s legitimacy.
Both Biden and Netanyahu’s teams may believe precision matters, but in Iran theater matters more. Israel’s attack lacked any performative value and therefore failed to undermine Khamenei among his core supporters. Lacking any visible evidence that Israel neutralized the S-300 systems, Khamenei’s base trusts regime propaganda: Their leaders launched a mass attack and Israel was too scared to respond. Rather than deflate the Islamic Republic, Israel’s restraint bolstered it.
Khamenei saved face and had performative retaliatory strikes against U.S. forces in Iraq after killing Soleimani. It didn’t accomplish any strategic objective, but it allowed him to keep his head up before his base. That uninjured image bolstered him to attack Israel last month. Biden’s insistence on keeping Israel’s retaliation small and quiet will similarly encourage Khamenei to launch an even larger attack in the future, bringing the region closer to war.
