Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 17, 2024, Secretary of State Antony Blinken argued that a Palestinian state would bring security to the Middle East. “Iran, [will be] suddenly isolated along with its proxies and will have to make decisions about what it wants its future to be.”
Such a prediction is naïve and misunderstands Islamic Republic policy and ideology. The Iranian regime’s official policy objective is not the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, but rather Palestinian sovereignty over all of Israel. Foreign diplomats and Israel itself might envision a two-state solution, but Iran’s leadership wants it all. This is why Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has called for “a referendum for self-determination amongst the original residents of Palestine” in which, in practice, Palestinians but not Jews can vote. Kamal Kharazi, a former foreign minister who now acts as a foreign policy mouthpiece for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, subsequently reiterated this position in an English-language interview on Al Jazeera.
The Iranian regime’s official policy objective is not the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, but rather Palestinian sovereignty over all of Israel.
It is folly to dismiss such rhetoric as for domestic consumption only, as American policymakers often do. Neither Amir-Abdollahian nor Kharazi chose a venue or format optimal for domestic propaganda. Their position has been an immutable pillar of the Islamic Republic for nearly 45 years and a revolutionary ideal before that. At a time when the regime hangs to power by a thread, violating its core principle will not buy it friends domestically but will delegitimize it among its most ardent supporters.
Blinken’s claim that a Palestinian state would force the Islamic Republic to make a difficult decision is fanciful. He errs by projecting the American system and values onto an adversary. In reality, the Islamic Republic is a state with a coherent ideology and well-articulated and non-negotiable objectives incompatible with the American world order. The regime shows tactical flexibility but remains rigid in its goals.
Rather than achieve peace, Iran’s leadership views a Palestinian state as a means to attack Israel. In a worst-case scenario, an independent Palestinian state will build a standing military, form alliances with rejectionist states, and could even welcome military forces onto its territory to escalate the war against Israel and to exploit gas fields in the Mediterranean Sea. A Palestinian state would become little different from the Houthi-dominated regime in Yemen or the militia-dominated government in Iraq. In both cases, they undermine moderate elements with the populist calumny of collaboration. While Blinken still sees the Palestine Liberation Organization operating under the guise of the Palestinian Authority as a partner, he misunderstands that the Islamic Republic has used Hamas to discredit the group in the West Bank and would do the same in a sovereign Palestinian state.
It is diplomatic narcissism for Blinken to believe that the Islamic Republic shapes its policies in reaction to the United States.
Nor will the two-state solution resolve U.S. problems with Iran. Disputes about Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, the proxy war with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, hostage taking, and domestic oppression have roots distinct from the regime’s anti-Zionism. Even the regime’s nuclear weapons program is less about Israel and more about regime security and establishing a deterrent that will enable Tehran to pursue its objectives with impunity.
It is diplomatic narcissism for Blinken to believe that the Islamic Republic shapes its policies in reaction to the United States. The pillars of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s ideology predate the establishment of the United States. Because regime ideology rests upon the belief in its own divine inspiration, the regime cannot compromise on its objectives because it cannot compromise on the will of God. Blinken might view Palestinian statehood with rose-colored glasses, but his unwarranted assumptions not only will not bring peace, but they could very well usher in even greater regional chaos.
