Israel’s reported drone strike on an Iranian air base near Isfahan early Friday, following Iran’s unprecedented missile attack on Israel last Sunday, marks a significant moment in the escalating shadow war between the two adversaries. The limited nature of Israel’s retaliation and Iran’s muted response suggests both sides may be looking to step back from the brink of all-out conflict. But this attack is also a clear sign that the strategic landscape of the Middle East is shifting rapidly, and Israel has a unique window of opportunity to press its advantage.
For years, Iran has sought to establish a “ring of fire” around Israel, arming Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shia militias in Syria and Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen. The goal was to create a multi-front threat that would make Israel think twice about striking Iran’s nuclear facilities. But despite Iran’s massive investment in this proxy network, Israel’s missile defenses, with the help of its Western and Arab partners, were able to intercept the overwhelming majority of the over 300 Iranian drones and ballistic missiles.
This attack is a clear sign that the strategic landscape of the Middle East is shifting rapidly, and Israel has a unique window of opportunity to press its advantage.
This failed attack is just the latest sign that the regional balance of power is shifting in Israel’s favor. The Abraham Accords, which saw Israel normalize relations with the UAE and Bahrain, have opened up new opportunities for security cooperation between Israel and the Sunni Arab states. Even Saudi Arabia, long a bastion of anti-Israel sentiment, is finding common cause with Jerusalem in the face of the Iranian threat.
Yet Israel has been slow to adapt its security doctrine to these new realities. Its military and intelligence establishment remains mired in a defensive, risk-averse posture that cedes the initiative to Iran. The recent assassination of an Iranian general in Syria, rather than a lower-level proxy commander, was a provocative move that invited Iranian retaliation without significantly degrading Iran’s capabilities. It also exposed serious coordination gaps between Israel’s intelligence agencies and with its U.S. ally.
To regain the strategic initiative, Israel needs to embrace a paradigm shift in its approach to Iran. Rather than simply trying to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional influence, Israel should adopt a more preemptive posture aimed at actively undermining the stability of the Islamic Republic.
This could include covert operations to exploit ethnic and political fissures within Iran and support domestic opposition to the regime. A new “Iran Freedom Project” focused on political subversion would be a good complement to Israel’s existing military and intelligence efforts.
Israel should also update its deterrence concepts to rely more on neutralizing Iranian capabilities than threatening retaliation. This will require continued investment in multi-layered missile defenses and close coordination with Arab partners to cut off Iranian supply lines to its proxies.
If Iran continues to cross red lines, Israel should be prepared to strike Iranian nuclear and military assets directly. The Iranian leadership must understand that Israel will not wait until they have a nuclear weapon to act, and that any attack emanating from Iranian soil will be met with a firm response.
Israel should adopt a more preemptive posture aimed at actively undermining the stability of the Islamic Republic.
On the diplomatic front, Israel should capitalize on the growing alignment with Sunni Arab states to further isolate Iran and build a regional security architecture capable of deterring Iranian aggression. The Abraham Accords provide a foundation for what could become a “Middle East NATO” that enshrines the Israel-Sunni Arab partnership.
Implementing this strategic shift will require a new generation of Israeli leadership willing to challenge outdated assumptions and take calculated risks. The current government’s hawkish stance is a step in the right direction, but it remains to be seen if it can overcome institutional inertia and other domestic constraints.
The April 15 attack was a wake-up call for Israel. It exposed the limits of Iran’s proxy strategy, but also the inadequacy of Israel’s current deterrence posture. With Iran now on the offensive and its Arab neighbors receptive to expanded security ties, Israel has a unique window of opportunity to reshape the regional balance of power in its favor. But doing so will require bold leadership, creative strategy, and a willingness to break with the status quo. The stakes could not be higher, for Israel and for the wider Middle East.
