President Donald Trump has upended U.S. foreign policy by flipping the script on Ukraine. The president has declared Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a dictator and has overturned broad bipartisan sentiment regarding both responsibility for the war and the need for Russia to evacuate Ukrainian territory. The rapidity of his actions—first a summit between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Russian counterparty Sergey Lavrov—and now plans for a Trump trip to Moscow represents one of the most stunning geopolitical reversals since the fall of the Berlin Wall changed Eastern Europe’s orientation and partnerships and the 1979 Islamic Revolution’s impact on Iran’s geopolitical orientation.
That so many in Trump’s circle applaud the president should raise alarm bells. It illustrates how power trumps morality among Washington elites. The records of men like Rubio suggest they may not believe in the president’s policies, but they do what is necessary and become yes-men for the sake of keeping the perks of power.
That so many in Trump’s circle applaud the president should raise alarm bells. It illustrates how power trumps morality among Washington elites.
The danger is not just what this might mean for Ukraine, but the Rubicon crossed in U.S. foreign policy. U.S. policy depends on precedent, but both Democrats and Republicans often seek to seize advantage or change policy radically based on the idea that theirs will be a one-time exception. Sometimes this occurs with rule changes, such as how to confirm judges, and other times it involves the types of issues Executive Orders tackle. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action not only bypassed traditional Senate ratification by redefining the agreement as something other than a treaty, but then crafted a process by which one-third Senate support would suffice for passage.
While a Republican fringe, isolationist and conspiracy-prone, castigated Ukraine, the fact that no U.S. troops took part in hostilities muted criticism of U.S. support. Other opposition to supporting Ukraine focused on those who believed resources would be better applied elsewhere, either toward competition with China or on various domestic recipients.
There are parallels to U.S. support for Israel. While the U.S.-Israel partnership is decades long and bipartisan, there is an increasingly vocal progressive fringe in Congress that despises the partnership, as well as an increasing pool of conspiracy theorists sprinkled across Democratic media outlets, both online and on air.
The question Republicans and mainstream Democrats should ask: If Congress and key leaders elsewhere fail to constrain, condemn, call out, and reverse Trump’s declarations on Ukraine, could a future Democratic president repeat the precedent, pulling the carpet out from beneath Israel and its democratic leaders by recasting them as aggressors, dictators, and “fascists,” as Trump now describes Zelensky and his cohort of Ukrainian leaders?
The danger is real: The common glue uniting the American electorate right now is antagonism toward Washington. The same dynamics that allowed Trump to triumph over a field of more mainstream Republican leaders a decade ago could just as easily apply to a progressive populist like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who already delights in upstaging the doyens of the Democratic Party like former Speaker Nancy Pelosi or Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.
All U.S. allies must beware, but especially those like Israel who have become political footballs in Washington.
If Rubio bows to MAGA to have the perks of power, might not a mainstream Democrat like Cory Booker, who has already displayed a willingness to abandon his centrism to attract more left-of-center voters? Could proponents of a solid U.S.-Israel partnership of democracies really trust potential Secretaries of State Chris Murphy, Richard Blumenthal, or Samantha Power not to follow a President Ocasio-Cortez down the anti-Israel rabbit hole?
Certainly, elections matter. But when those cheering Trump’s about-face and detachment from reality on Ukraine complain in the future, when the same playbook swings U.S. policy far more toward the Islamic Republic of Iran or Turkey than even former President Barack Obama was willing to go, will precedents today undermine the effectiveness of their dissent?
All U.S. allies must beware, but especially those like Israel who have become political footballs in Washington. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can stand alongside Trump as he announces a Gaza relocation plan and believe the pendulum will never swing back, but history shows it always does. Nor is the issue only Netanyahu’s polarizing personality. While many on the left have Netanyahu Derangement Syndrome, those who know Israel understand his security policies represent a consensus among the broad array of mainstream Israeli parties. The path to a solid U.S.-Israel partnership will never be through one party only, but only when the broadest base possible shares a consensus about the future. Failing that, the reality is that Israel’s alleged nuclear deterrent may never be so important as it is now.
