Donald Trump forcing Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s far-left leader, to back down in the face of the threat of sky-high tariffs was a welcome change after four years of Joe Biden’s geriatric passivity. But Trump’s broader threat of indiscriminate tariffs—including against Canada and Mexico—will have dire foreign policy consequences. Close allies will distance themselves and trading partners will flee to other markets.
Consider recent Trump threats against Egypt and Jordan. Here’s the chronology:
- January 26, 2025: Trump endorsed the idea of Gazans leaving Gaza: “You’re talking about a million and half people, and we just clean out that whole thing. I’d rather get involved with some of the Arab nations and build housing at a different location where they can maybe live in peace for a change.”
- January 28, 2025: Trump specified Egypt and Jordan as countries of destination for Gazans.
- January 30, 2025: Trump responded to a reporter’s question of whether he planned to invoke tariffs with, “They will do it. … We do a lot for them, and they’re gonna do it.”
These off-the-cuff remarks have clear implications. First, and contrary to Israeli discussions of Gazans leaving voluntarily, Trump views their exodus as compulsory. Second, he plans to impose economic penalties unless the two governments agree to take in Gazans. These could include tariffs, cutting off aid, ending military sales, sanctions, boycotts, and more.
Contrary to Israeli discussions of Gazans leaving voluntarily, Trump views their exodus as compulsory.
Trump’s comments prompted furor. Foreign ministers from Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, as well as officials from the Palestinian Authority and the Arab League, rejected the transfer of Palestinians from Gaza “under any circumstances or justifications.” They rejected any “infringement of the inalienable rights” of Palestinians, whether by “settlement, expulsion, home demolitions, annexation, depopulation of the land of its people through displacement, encouraged transfer, or the uprooting of Palestinians from their land.”
Without naming Trump, they warned that plans such as his “threaten the region’s stability, risk expanding the conflict, and undermine prospects for peace and coexistence among its peoples.” For good measure, Egypt’s President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi added that “the displacement of Palestinians … can never be tolerated or allowed because of its impact on Egyptian national security.” Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi on his own echoed these sentiments: “Our refusal of displacement is a steadfast position that will not change. Jordan is for Jordanians, and Palestine is for Palestinians.”
Hamas, of course, denounced these ideas as “disconnected from reality” and “rejected in their entirety” but individual Gazan reactions might well be more positive, given their long experience of oppression in Gaza and the territory’s current devastation. Still, even disregarding bias in coverage, the forcible emigration to a foreign country can have only limited appeal.
Small Gaza is problem enough; just imagine it spreading to two large countries.
It is one thing to threaten flower-exporting Colombia with tariffs to accept deportees two weeks before Valentine’s Day. It is another to induce Egypt or Jordan to accept the mass influx of Gazans. Their governments will fight Trump to the end. Note what Sisi said about the “impact on Egyptian national security”; in coded language, he states that bending to Trump could lead to his own demise. The last thing an already shaky strongman needs is a new, radicalized population. The same applies to Jordan, which suffered for decades from Palestinian extremism. Small Gaza is problem enough; just imagine it spreading to two large countries.
If push comes to shove, Egypt and Jordan will replace U.S. government funding with support from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. They will win close to unanimous diplomatic support. They will turn away from the United States and toward China.
Woe to the country whose leader makes foreign policy spontaneously, without a careful consideration of factors. Promiscuously threatening one and all with economic damage will undercut America’s position in the world. Americans and their allies will lose badly if Trump persists in threatening tariffs as the mainstay of U.S. foreign policy.
