The Iranian regime currently grapples with an economic crisis, the result of not only sanctions but also its own mismanagement and foreign adventurism. The ability of Israel to penetrate Iran’s air defenses and strike targets with precision exposes the regime’s military weakness. Should nationwide protests again erupt, the regime’s situation could be perilous.
Restrictions on communication and internet access hamper the Iranian public’s ability to affect grassroots regime change. Technological developments such as direct-to-cellular internet services provided by satellite internet companies like SpaceX, however, could empower the Iranian public by enabling them to bypass the security forces’ communications chokehold.
The Islamic Republic seeks to force the Iranian people to become consumers of state propaganda and to be subjects of the regime’s psychological operations.
For nearly two decades, Iranians have endured onerous internet censorship as the Islamic Republic seeks to force the Iranian people to become consumers of state propaganda and to be subjects of the regime’s psychological operations. Absent the use of virtual private networks (VPNs) and proxy servers, Iranians cannot access international news websites, social media platforms, and messaging applications. Although the U.S. government has invested millions of dollars in projects to develop VPNs to assist Iranians in bypassing the censorship, the Iranian regime’s use of total internet blackouts renders these ineffective.
The use of internet blackouts has been an effective tool to suppress anti-regime protests, most notably in November 2019 when, after just two days of internet shutdown, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered security forces to kill hundreds of protesters. Similarly, during the Mahsa Amini protests in December 2022, the regime employed internet and communication blackouts to stifle dissent and suppress protests by year’s end.
In response to these internet access restrictions, Iranian human rights organizations negotiated with SpaceX to facilitate the use of Starlink in Iran. As a result, Iranians received hundreds of Starlink terminals. While some were able to access Starlink’s satellite internet service, the high black-market cost of the terminals and subscriptions limited their use primarily to the upper class who are less likely to participate in anti-regime protests.
The Iranian regime’s use of GPS jammers and spoofers has also impacted Starlink’s satellite connectivity. These tactics force Iranian Starlink users to manually adjust their devices to connect to SpaceX satellites. Despite these efforts, the regime has not been able to fully disrupt or terminate Starlink’s service within Iran.
Direct-to-cell internet services via Starlink would offer an opportunity for most Iranians to bypass censorship and remain connected during protests.
In 2022, SpaceX began the final development of its direct-to-cellular capability, and on January 2, 2024, launched its first six Bus F9-3 satellites, successfully testing text messaging on T-Mobile’s network using the new system. SpaceX’s plans to expand this satellite internet capability worldwide will allow a larger portion of the population to access internet services through their cell phones, bypassing the need for more expensive terminals.
The provision to Iran of direct-to-cell internet services via Starlink would offer an opportunity for most Iranians to bypass censorship and remain connected during protests. This service also would enable them to access unfiltered news sources, social media platforms, and messaging applications. It would help them to avoid the psychological operations and disinformation campaigns disseminated by state-controlled media. Additionally, it would allow organizers of anti-regime protests and opposition leaders to maintain secure communication, facilitating better coordination and resistance against violent suppression.
Rather than continued investment in technologies the Iranian regime can bypass, the Trump administration should focus on what works now: Direct-to-cell internet service can do more than Starlink terminals to empower the population and advance the cause of regime change.
