Israel’s October 26, 2024, retaliation against Iran was a military success and a political failure. On its face, Israel succeeded in reducing Iran’s military capabilities, but the limited visibility of the Israeli attacks to the regime’s base fumbled the opportunity to deter Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
For Khamenei, image trumps capability. He has spent decades elevating his cult of personality. He believes that Iran can replenish lost military capabilities, but he cannot restore the image of strength.
Israel’s strikes have entirely dismantled Iran’s air defense, set back Iran’s drone and missile production facilities, and targeted at least one nuclear site. For this, Israel can claim success. However, the operation prioritized precision over visibility. Because of this, the regime can downplay the damage, and Khamenei can continue to project an image of strength to his base, the relatively small number of conservative youths, often members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Basij paramilitary through which many young people enter. They receive benefits and, in turn, do the regime’s dirty work, from cracking down on domestic protesters to fighting abroad.
The [Iranian] regime can downplay the damage, and Khamenei can continue to project an image of strength to his base.
Since the strike, the Islamic Republic state media have reported that the damage was minimal. In a meeting with the families of those killed during the attack, Khamenei warned against exaggerating the attack. His regime pledges a response, but it is unlikely that it will be as dramatic as the April and October missile barrages.
After Israel killed Hezbollah’s secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon, the Telegram channels of conservative youth criticized the regime for becoming too soft. Commentators cited a litany of humiliations, from the Trump administration’s killing of Qods Force Chief Qassem Soleimani to inaction over the death of Hamas fighters and Palestinians in Gaza to the assassination of Hamas Political Chief Ismail Haniyeh in a Tehran guest house. Most telling was a young journalist reporting live from Beirut who unleashed an unscripted monologue:
“We never thought that there would come a day that [Nasrallah] wouldn’t be here, while we’re still here…. We warned that a process had been set in motion whose end would result in hitting the head of the resistance…. We screamed that an important part of the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation [Hamas’s invasion of Israel] is America. Mr. Islamic Republic, face reality!”
This attitude among the regime’s most important constituency prompted Khamenei to attack Israel despite his personal reluctance to risk an image-ruining defeat. His October barrage hit some Israeli military bases but caused only limited damage, though Khamenei’s base does not know that. Meanwhile, Israel took weeks to prepare, and its response was hardly visible. Missiles did not streak across Iranian skies as they did over Israel during Iran’s two attacks. Few military personnel died, and ordinary Iranians could not verify the extent of the damage since Israel’s attacks were precise and largely limited to closed military zones.
Israel took weeks to prepare, and its response was hardly visible. Missiles did not streak across Iranian skies.
The only solution to the Middle East turmoil is regime change in Iran. As Lev Tikhomirov, a Russian tsarist, observed in 1911, “As a rule, a regime perishes not because of the strength of its enemies, but the uselessness of its defenders.” Anti-regime Iranians are strong, but they have thus far failed due to the commitment of their opponents: the regime’s conservative youths. Regime change will happen only if they stop defending the system.
Three promises brought the Islamic Republic to power: economic welfare, the rule of Islam, and standing up to America and Israel. But Iran is an impoverished country. Conservative youths are critical of corruption among the elite. The regime is losing the hijab battle to women, who continue to hang out with boyfriends in public. Mosques are empty.
The only remaining claim to legitimacy is the ability to hit America and Israel with impunity. Khamenei has lasted this long because he saves face and projects strength to his base. Israel’s most effective response will be an action public enough that it will disabuse the conservative youth of Khamenei’s illusion of strength.
Israel had the opportunity to hit a home run, but it chose instead to bunt. It could have won politically by challenging Khamenei’s legitimacy further through a dramatic operation, rather than a limited one. Its reluctance to do so means that Khamenei survives by claiming that he shot hundreds of missiles at Israel and suffered little more than a flesh wound in response. To an American observer or an Iranian dissident, this is a laughable claim. But to his loyal supporters, it is divine truth.
