President-elect Donald Trump may be ambivalent about American support for Ukraine’s fight against Russia, but this should not mean ignoring the broader strategic threat that Russia poses to U.S. interests.
Russian aircraft regularly probe American defenses along Alaska’s coast, and Russian submarines and spy ships shadow U.S. naval vessels departing Norfolk, Virginia. Other Russian spy ships monitor Cape Canaveral, Florida, and New London, Connecticut. In recent years, the Kremlin also has increased its presence in Mexico to monitor and perhaps run operations against the United States in conjunction with various cartels. Russia also re-engages Cuba, just as that country’s communist regime appears headed into its death throes. Nicaragua has offered to be Russia’s “regional platform.”
Beyond the Americas, Russia seeks to maintain its presence in the Middle East. While the collapse of the Syrian regime to Turkey-backed jihadis threatens Russia’s ability to maintain its naval and air bases at Tartous and its air base at Khmeimim, Russia is on the offensive elsewhere.
Sudan’s 12-front civil war is today the world’s bloodiest. Its impact on civilians and combatants now surpasses Ukraine’s war and is more than two orders of magnitude greater than that of the Hamas-Israel conflict. Russia seeks advantage from the humanitarian tragedy to gain a foothold on the Red Sea coast.
The possibility of a Russian naval base in Sudan is not simply theoretical.
When fighting erupted in Sudan, Moscow initially supported the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces that control Khartoum, largely because it controlled territory in which the Wagner Group hoped to exploit mineral wealth, but the Russian government quickly switched sides to the Sudan Armed Forces and Transitional Sovereignty Council that control northern Sudan (with the exception of the Libyan border) and the Red Sea coast. The Kremlin’s move was adept: Not only did it place Russia and Iran on the same side of the Sudan war, but it also enabled Russian influence over Port Sudan, Sudan’s major seaport, and opened up the possibility of a land bridge to support the de facto Russian empire that the Wagner Group constructed by means of a series of coups from Mali to Niger and then strategic investments in Chad and the Central African Republic. Russian President Vladimir Putin may be even more cynical, and may fund both sides, seeking to maximize concessions from each.
The possibility of a Russian naval base in Sudan is not simply theoretical. On April 28, 2024, Mikhail Mogdanov began a two-day visit to Port Sudan to meet with General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, chairman of the Transitional Sovereignty Council. Just over a month later, Burhan’s deputy Malik Agar traveled to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June 2024 to meet with Russian officials about the base. Speaking on its sidelines, he acknowledged the Transitional Sovereignty Council would revive a moribund agreement from 2017 that would allow Russia to build a naval base in or near Port Sudan. Russia also reportedly has offered its Sudanese allies S-400 missiles as part of a sweetener to win the base deal.
Although the Moscow Times last month reported that Sudan had rejected Moscow’s latest package, Trump’s team should not assume the matter is over. While the United States may have leaned on the Saudis, Burhan’s backers in the internecine struggle to get Burhan to reject the Russians, Moscow’s ambitions are not over. They likely will up their offer to Burhan while simultaneously seeking to expand the Russian presence in Libya.
It would be foolish for Trump or his team to assume that Russia is down and out.
Sudan is a particularly messy conflict that even under the best circumstances could last another five or ten years. Biden-era U.S. diplomacy has failed, with its much-heralded May 2023 Jeddah Declaration ignored by all parties. Not only is Sudan on the front lines of decades-long tension between African and Arab tribes, but the Saudis and Emiratis continue to engage in a zero-sum struggle for influence within Sudan, paid for in Sudanese blood. The White House and Pentagon may celebrate Russia’s collapse in Syria, but it would be foolish for Trump or his team to assume that Russia is down and out. Putin’s loss in Syria makes him more desperate to find a replacement. He will seek to outbid Saudi Arabia for influence among Sudan’s Transitional Sovereignty Council to gain a new regional naval base. He counts on the Trump team’s lack of focus to solidify a Red Sea presence; Trump, Secretary of State-designee Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, Trump’s choice for National Security Advisor, should not validate Putin’s strategy.
