President Donald Trump’s plan to force Egypt and Jordan to accept more than 2.3 million Palestinian refugees from Gaza will backfire.
Egypt and Jordan rejected the proposal. Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi called it a “red line” for the country that “cannot be tolerated or permitted.” Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi declared, “Jordan is for Jordanians, Palestine is for Palestinians.”
Trump has doubled down. “They will do it. They will do it. They’re gonna do it, okay? We do a lot for them, and they’re gonna do it,” he told journalists.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the plan to relocate Gazans “remarkable” and Defense Minister Israel Katz ordered the Israel Defense Forces to prepare for the “voluntary” departure of Gazans.
For many in Israel, the proposal can be alluring, especially if it stops the Gaza-based terror campaign that has plagued Israel since 2005.
For many in Israel, the proposal can be alluring, especially if it stops the Gaza-based terror campaign that has plagued Israel since its unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in 2005. While Western diplomats today celebrate the ceasefire, they ignore both that a Palestinian renunciation of terror was a prerequisite under the Oslo Accords for Palestinian governance in Gaza and the West Bank and that Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel occurred during a previous ceasefire.
Trump’s proposed solution, however, will unleash the chaos Israel seeks to contain, as Middle East Forum President Daniel Pipes noted. Palestinians comprise between 55 and 70 percent of Jordan’s population, including 2.4 million registered refugees with Jordanian citizenship. Jordan has the second-highest ratio of refugees per capita globally and currently hosts 710,000 other refugees, creating economic strain.
With a debt-to-GDP ratio of 113.8 percent in 2023, an unemployment rate of 21.4 percent, and youth unemployment soaring to 43.7 percent in 2024, Jordan’s economy cannot withstand another inrush of refugees.
Accommodating an inpouring of even several hundred thousand additional refugees would further strain the country’s already spread-too-thin infrastructure, health care and social welfare systems, and provide extremist political entrepreneurs an opportunity to channel public grievances into internal unrest.
Adding Gaza’s Palestinians into Jordan’s already fragile demographic balance could undermine King Abdullah II’s authority. Acquiescing under pressure to further Palestinian resettlement would further undercut his authority with his non-Palestinian support base.
Jordanians are also conscious of history. They fear Hamas terrorists could replicate the 1970 Black September crisis, when Palestinians tried to overthrow the Hashemite monarchy with an even larger Palestinian majority.
Abdullah II’s moderate stance toward Israel has placed him at odds with his subjects’ strong pro-Palestinian sympathies, as Hamas’s popularity has skyrocketed in the Kingdom since October 7, 2023.
An influx of Palestinian refugees threatens to turn the Sinai once again into a hotbed of Islamist militants.
Nor is Jordan alone. With 35 percent inflation, a 50 percent currency devaluation since 2022, and 60 percent of its 106 million people living near or below the poverty line, Egypt already struggles to feed its population. It simply cannot sustainably accept more Palestinian refugees.
Cairo’s concerns also lie in the Sinai. An influx of Palestinian refugees threatens to turn the Sinai once again into a hotbed of Islamist militants, especially those who seek to use the Sinai as a launchpad for attacks on Israel. Nor is the Sinai insurgency easily contained; militants often attack other areas in Egypt.
Forcing Jordan and Egypt to absorb Gaza’s Palestinians would create a risky incentive structure and undermine the Israel-Egypt and Israel-Jordan peace accords, both of which serve Israel well.
Just as the U.S. government has received pressure to intervene militarily in Mexico against cartels to stem migrant and narcotic flows, Jordan and Egypt may feel compelled to take preventive military action against Israel if they believe it intends to expel Palestinians into their territory. It may be bluster now, but such statements can take on a life of their own.
Out-of-the-box thinking can open new doors like the Abraham Accords did, but it’s not always positive. Trump’s proposal, although well-meaning, will not bring peace; it will only expand Israel’s threat environment.
