The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024 has plunged Syria into a new phase. While Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham depicts itself as being in control of Syria, its claim remains more aspirational than real. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham may control Damascus, Aleppo, and Idlib, but other Arab tribal groups and Druze are dominant in the south, Alawis remain important in Latakia, and the Kurds continue to administer much of Syria’s north and east.
Many Western governments, moderate Arab states, and Israel remain unconvinced if not concerned about the sincerity and depth of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s conversion from Al Qaeda militancy. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham boasts just 30,000 fighters, who have failed to man security checkpoints and carried out reprisal killings. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, the self-declared president of Syria, has failed to unite the group under a single banner.
The groundwork for this vision is in place. Israel has signaled its support for Syria’s Druze, a minority ethno-religious group concentrated in Syria’s southern As-Suwayda governorate.
The creation of a Kurdish-Druze crescent in Syria could provide an alternative, ensuring both local rule and a hedge to counter Islamist domination and Turkish intrusions. Such an alliance, uniting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in the northeast with Druze communities in the south, could serve as a stabilizing force to protect minority rights and thwart the ambitions of regional spoilers like Turkey and Iran. The Kurdish-Druze crescent also would establish a land bridge stretching from Syria’s northeastern Al-Hasakah governorate to the country’s southern border and into the eastern suburbs of Damascus. This would unify not only Kurds and Druze but also Sunni Arab factions like the U.S.-backed Free Syrian Army and the 8th Brigade, which serves as a bulwark against Iranian expansion.
The groundwork for this vision is in place. Israel has signaled its support for Syria’s Druze, a minority ethno-religious group concentrated in Syria’s southern As-Suwayda governorate. Following Assad’s fall, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar called for international action to protect the Kurds and Druze, describing the former as “natural allies” who fought bravely against the Islamic State and pointing to “strong ties” with the latter, who are a minority in Israel. Israel’s support extends to Druze communities in Damascus, a territory under the nominal control of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have backed this rhetoric with action, conducting hundreds of airstrikes to prevent advanced weapons from falling into rebel hands, strikes that indirectly shield Druze communities from Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham aggression. From a stronghold on Mount Hermon, the IDF have branched out and constructed seven new patrol bases intended to secure the border and establish a demilitarized zone in the Quneitra, Daraa, and As-Suwayda governorates.
With approximately 2,000 American troops still stationed in northeastern Syria to conduct a counter-Islamic State mission, the United States has a vested interest in ensuring the Syrian Democratic Forces’ survival.
Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to support the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-led coalition that controls nearly a quarter of Syria’s territory and has been a linchpin in the fight against the Islamic State. With approximately 2,000 American troops still stationed in northeastern Syria to conduct a counter-Islamic State mission, the United States has a vested interest in ensuring the Syrian Democratic Forces’ survival. Syrian Democratic Forces General Mazloum Abdi warns that a Turkish or Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham offensive into Kurdish-controlled areas could lead to the mass escape of Islamic State fighters living in prisons like Al-Hol guarded by the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Israel does not want to see a “weak Syria,” where unchecked lawlessness and extremism flourish. Rather, a Kurdish-Druze crescent could unify a majority of Syria and shift the balance of power away from militants. Joining these factions would mean bringing together the largest army overseeing the biggest territory with the most resources, including the country’s breadbasket and oil reserves.
Israel reportedly has warned U.S. policymakers that the “Ankara-backed authorities” in Damascus could create an Islamist terrorist group like Hamas. Since Assad’s ouster, Turkey-backed Syrian National Army factions have escalated attacks on Kurdish-held areas like Manbij and Kobani, aiming to push Kurds east of the Euphrates and establish a 20-mile buffer zone along the border.
The Kurdish-Druze crescent is pragmatic. It promotes a pluralistic Syria capable of resisting both Islamist tyranny and Turkish interference. As negotiations over Syria’s future unfold, Washington and Jerusalem should help these communities empower themselves. The alternative is a Syria dominated by extremists and foreign proxies, an outcome the region can ill afford.
