The Middle East is a region of extremes. During the Arab Spring, Egypt swung from a military regime in all but name to Muslim Brotherhood rule and then back in little less than a year. Libya went from a brutal dictator who kept a lid on Al Qaeda terror to a country that celebrated it. Yemen pivoted from an Arab dictator who promoted Arab nationalism to a tribally run regime that prioritized Iran’s bidding. Turkey’s modern history was a whiplash between left- and right-wing domination until the mid-1990s, albeit with the Islamists marginalized. That changed in 2002 when Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) swept to power. Through a quirk of Turkish election law, its 32 percent of the vote translated into 66 percent of the seats in parliament. Erdoğan is easily Turkey’s most consequential leader since Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.
Erdoğan made Turkey permissive for the Islamic State, and he has openly supported Hamas.
In 2014, Erdoğan declared his goal to be to “build a religious generation.” While he treated U.S. and European diplomats as useful idiots during his rise to power, his true ideology now shines through. Erdoğan made Turkey permissive for the Islamic State, and he has openly supported Hamas. Turkey is also the driving force behind Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the rebel group previously affiliated with Al Qaeda that earlier this week seized Damascus.
HTS may or may not be sincere in its break from Al Qaeda, but it has not been shy about acting as Turkey’s proxy. Prior to its latest offensive, it seized control of portions of northern Syria and imposed a Turkish agenda on the occupied districts’ Kurds, Christians, and Yezidi. This included the establishment of Turkish post offices, banning of Kurdish names on identity cards, forced veiling of women, and promotion of Sunni Islamism in the local education system.
As Erdoğan treats HTS as his proxy and simultaneously promotes Hamas, the question then becomes whether Syria will become Hamas’s new base. With their own reputation in taters, Qatar has urged Hamas leadership to leave their villas in Doha, not wanting to anger the incoming Trump administration. While Turkey long ago welcomed Hamas leaders not only to negotiate and access international financial institutions, but also to plan and direct terrorist attacks, Erdoğan is the master of the double game and plausible deniability. Therefore, do not be surprised if Erdoğan offloads the Hamas presence from Turkey itself into Syria.
Not only would this protect Turkey from growing calls for its own terror designation, but it also would sidestep the likelihood that Turkey might be ground zero for Israeli assassinations of Hamas leaders which, even if done with Israel’s own plausible deniability, would inflame Turkey and force greater reactions.
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and Hamas are ideological brethren and so the new regime in Damascus likely would welcome their fellow travelers.
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and Hamas are ideological brethren and so the new regime in Damascus likely would welcome their fellow travelers. For HTS, Hamas attacks on Israel would allow it the same plausible deniability, since they could tell Western diplomats that they were not the cause of ongoing violence. Either way, expect Syria to become Hamas’s new base but do not expect the new HTS-led regime to restrain the group. Israel is defeating Hamas in the Gaza Strip, but it soon could face Hamas 2.0 inside Syria.
In the short term, Israel’s buffer in the Golan Heights is wise, but in the longer term, a transplanted Hamas will undermine the largely Palestinian Kingdom of Jordan on Syria’s borders even more. King Abdullah II may be dead man walking unless the United States and its allies approach the region with greater proactivity.
Syria was a terror sponsor under former President Bashar al-Assad on behalf of Iran and Hezbollah; it now will become a terror sponsor under Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani on behalf of Turkey and Hamas. The extremism and players may change, but the terror problem will be harder to eradicate.
