A Nervous Iran Wanted to Restore Old Regional Order, but Israel Is on the Offensive

After Decades of a Defensive Deterrence and Containment Strategy, Post-October 7 Israel Shifted to the Strategic Offensive Against the Iranian Alliance

A downed Israeli spy drone on display at the Military Museum in Tehran, September, 9, 2019. A monitor in the background shows Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

A downed Israeli spy drone on display at the Military Museum in Tehran, September, 9, 2019. A monitor in the background shows Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Hardliners seem to have won the day in Tehran, but instead of deterring Netanyahu, they have likely sparked a painful, direct strike on Iranian territory.

Shutterstock

Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel surprised some observers.

It had seemed that the relatively moderate camp in Iran enjoyed growing sway over Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s decision-making. Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian, a member of the group that wants to see more engagement with the West in order to grow the economy and stabilize the regime, seemed to win the day after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July.

Despite the killing — widely believed to be by Israel’s hand — of a guest of the regime, who was in the capital to attend the inauguration of the new president, Khamenei opted not to respond.

Speaking at the United Nations last week, Pezeshkian offered a message of conciliation: “We seek peace for all and have no intention of conflict with any country… Iran opposes war.”

That approach has changed.

Read the full article at the Times of Israel.

Lazar Berman is the diplomatic correspondent at the Times of Israel, where he also covers Christian Affairs. He holds an M.A. in Security Studies from Georgetown University and taught at Salahuddin University in Iraqi Kurdistan. Berman is a reserve captain in the IDF’s Commando Brigade and served in a Bedouin unit during his active service.
See more from this Author
Ahmed Al-Sharaa Hopes to Convince the World He’s Left His Jihadist past Behind, but FM Gideon Sa’Ar and Other Senior Officials Are Not Persuaded
After Years on the Defensive, Israel Is Now on the March Against Those Proxies
After Hundreds of Missiles Fired at Israel, PM Says Yemeni Rebels Will Meet Same Fate as Hamas and Hezbollah
See more on this Topic
Israelis Widely Agreed in the Aftermath of the Oct. 7, 2023, Massacre That Hamas Had to Be Destroyed. Some 16 Months Later, However, Hamas Remains a Powerful Institution
A Weakened Ayatollah Khamenei Considers His Options