Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdogan is no longer a NATO ally in spirit; it is a rogue state pursuing an expansionist, Islamist agenda that threatens the stability of the Middle East, the Mediterranean, and even Europe.
Under Erdogan, Turkey has transformed into a regional aggressor, seeking to revive Ottoman-era dominance through military incursions, political subversion, and economic blackmail. He has leveraged the chaos of the Arab Spring, the Syrian Civil War, and the geopolitical vacuum left by Western indecision to entrench Turkish influence from North Africa to the Caucasus.
Turkey has transformed into a regional aggressor, seeking to revive Ottoman-era dominance through military incursions, political subversion, and economic blackmail.
This is not the Turkey of founding father Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. It is an assertive power bent on reshaping borders, weaponizing migration, and undermining its supposed Western allies. Erdogan plays both sides, balancing NATO membership with Russian military purchases, condemning Israel while trading with it, and feigning diplomacy while funding radical Islamists. The world watches, but who is prepared to stop him?
The answer does not lie in a single state but in an emerging coalition of forces converging out of necessity. The unspoken alliance that can challenge Erdogan’s ambitions is taking shape between Israel, Egypt, Greece, France, and the UAE – a bloc driven not by ideology but by survival.
An Islamist resurgence
Erdogan’s Turkey is not an isolated aggressor; it is the nerve center of a broader Islamist resurgence. His support for the Muslim Brotherhood threatens secular governments across the Arab world. His interventions in Libya, Syria, and the Caucasus are not just geopolitical maneuvers; they are statements of intent, demonstrating his willingness to redraw the map through force.
This makes Egypt and the UAE his natural adversaries. Both have declared the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization, and both have moved aggressively to counter Turkish-backed militias in Libya. The UAE has gone further, using its financial and military influence to support anti-Turkish factions across the region. But countering Erdogan requires more than isolated measures; it demands a synchronized strategy.
Turkish naval aggression in the Eastern Mediterranean is a direct challenge to Greek sovereignty, with Erdoğan openly contesting territorial waters and gas reserves.
Enter Israel and Greece. Israel views Turkey as an existential threat not only because of its support for Hamas but because of its growing influence in Palestinian politics. Turkey seeks to replace Iran as the leader of the anti-Israel axis by positioning itself as the champion of the Palestinian cause while maintaining just enough diplomatic ties to avoid full-scale retaliation. Greece, meanwhile, faces a more immediate danger.
Turkish naval aggression in the Eastern Mediterranean is a direct challenge to Greek sovereignty, with Erdogan openly contesting territorial waters and gas reserves. Athens has responded by strengthening military ties with France, which has its own reasons for opposing Turkish expansionism. President Emmanuel Macron’s France has emerged as Erdogan’s most vocal European opponent, clashing with Turkey over Libya, Syria, and even Turkey’s influence in European Muslim communities.
If this coalition solidifies, it has the means to halt Erdogan’s advance. The Abraham Accords nations provide economic leverage, cutting off Turkish financial networks in the Gulf and Africa. France and Greece can turn the Mediterranean into a no-go zone for Turkish naval adventurism. Israel’s intelligence capabilities can counter Turkey’s covert operations. Egypt, with its powerful military and regional influence, can contain Turkish proxies in North Africa and the Levant.
And the wildcard, Russia, could decide that its tactical alliance with Turkey has outlived its usefulness, especially if Erdogan overplays his hand in the Caucasus or Black Sea.
How to address the Turkish threat
Still, countering Erdogan is not just about military pressure; it is about economic and diplomatic warfare. Turkey’s fragile economy is its greatest weakness. Years of reckless spending, currency manipulation, and overreliance on Qatari financial support have left it vulnerable. Sanctions targeted at key Turkish industries – defense, banking, and energy – could accelerate its economic decline, forcing Erdogan into a defensive posture.
Cutting off Turkish influence networks in Europe and the Middle East would limit his ability to use soft power as a weapon.
Cutting off Turkish influence networks in Europe and the Middle East would limit his ability to use soft power as a weapon, and expelling it from NATO-led initiatives would signal that the West no longer tolerates Erdogan’s double game.
The time for appeasement has passed. The world’s tolerance of Erdogan’s belligerence has only emboldened him. He thrives on Western hesitation, using it to expand his reach while ensuring that the costs of intervention remain high.
History has shown that unchecked expansionism does not stop on its own. It must be confronted decisively, with a clear strategy and the will to follow through. The forces opposing Erdogan are assembling, but they must act before Turkey’s ambitions become irreversible.
Published originally under the title “Erdoğan’s Turkey Is the Nerve Centre of a Broader Islamist Resurgence.”
