On December 8, 2024, Syrian rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized control of Damascus, toppling President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in a lightning-fast offensive. This marked a significant shift in Syria’s ongoing civil war and raised serious concerns about the country’s future stability. The rapid advance of HTS, which also captured key cities like Homs, Daraa, and Sweida, revealed the fragility of Assad’s rule and highlighted the growing power of radical forces. Central to this development is HTS’s connection to al-Qaeda, a factor that poses significant security risks, particularly for Israel. As the situation in Syria continues to evolve, Israel faces new challenges in maintaining security on its borders.
As the situation in Syria continues to evolve, Israel faces new challenges in maintaining security on its borders.
HTS has been one of the most influential rebel factions in Syria, originally emerging from Jabhat al-Nusra, a group with close ties to al-Qaeda. Despite efforts by HTS’s leadership, including Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, to distance itself from al-Qaeda, the group’s roots in global jihadism remain a major concern. Jolani himself has acknowledged his past as a member of al-Qaeda’s operations in Iraq. While HTS has tried to present itself as a more pragmatic force focused on internal governance, its radical Islamist agenda and militant tactics suggest that the group could pose an ongoing threat to regional stability. The capture of Damascus and other major cities by HTS further solidifies its role as a dominant force in Syria, and raises fears that it may once again align with al-Qaeda or other jihadist groups.
For Israel, the rise of HTS represents a dangerous development. HTS’s expanding control brings radical Islamist forces closer to Israel’s borders, including the Golan Heights, a strategically important region that Israel has occupied since 1967. The prospect of an Islamist government in Syria, particularly one with links to al-Qaeda, raises the possibility of increased hostilities along Israel’s borders. HTS’s presence in southern Syria would also increase the likelihood of cross-border terrorism, either directly or through proxy groups. Given the group’s militant ideology, Israel may face new threats, including terror attacks against its civilians or military positions.
The rise of HTS also complicates Israel’s military strategy. The country has long been engaged in a campaign against Iranian and Hezbollah forces in Syria, and the emergence of HTS adds a new layer of complexity. As the group gains strength, Israel may have to confront a more fragmented array of enemies in the region. This could involve both direct military action and increased counter-terrorism operations to prevent attacks emanating from HTS-controlled areas. The situation in Syria has thus become more unpredictable, and Israel’s security concerns are growing.
With HTS now gaining ground near the Golan, Israel is especially concerned about the possibility of cross-border attacks and the risk that Syria could become a haven for jihadist groups targeting Israel.
In response to the shifting dynamics in Syria, Israel took immediate action by seizing control of a demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights. This area, originally part of a 1974 disengagement agreement between Israel and Syria, was abandoned by Syrian forces as HTS advanced. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the agreement had effectively collapsed with the fall of Assad’s regime and ordered the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to move into the buffer zone to protect Israel’s borders. Netanyahu emphasized that Israel would not allow “any hostile force” to establish itself near its borders, underscoring the country’s resolve to secure the Golan Heights in the face of growing instability. This move signals Israel’s recognition of the increasing security threat posed by HTS and other Islamist factions in Syria.
The Golan Heights is of immense strategic importance to Israel. It provides a commanding view of southern Syria and northern Israel, and has long been a point of contention between Israel and Syria. With HTS now gaining ground near the Golan, Israel is especially concerned about the possibility of cross-border attacks and the risk that Syria could become a haven for jihadist groups targeting Israel. Additionally, the leader of HTS, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, has family roots in the Golan Heights, making the area even more significant in the context of this conflict.
The fall of Assad’s regime has opened up new possibilities for Syria’s future, but it has also created greater risks for the region. For Israel, the rise of HTS and the destabilization of Syria present serious security challenges that could have far-reaching implications. While the collapse of the Assad regime may present an opportunity for change, it also increases the likelihood of greater instability and radicalization in Syria. As Israel grapples with these developments, it must remain vigilant in adapting its military strategy to deal with the evolving threat landscape. The next phase of Syria’s civil war—and the rise of HTS—could have profound implications for Israel’s security and its approach to regional conflicts.
Published originally under the title “Syrian Rebels, Al-Qaeda Ties, and Why Israel Should Worry.”
