Greece is not just a NATO member; between Souda Bay and Alexandroupoli, it is a pivotal partner more consequential than almost any other NATO member.
At the same time, it is one of NATO’s most vulnerable states.
No other NATO country except perhaps the Baltic states face such constant and prolonged challenges to its territory, either maritime or land. Turkey today seeks to upend more than a century of treaties and international law as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hopes to replicate President Vladimir Putin’s increasingly successful irredentism.
Turkey increasingly seeks to project power far beyond its borders. It has established formal military bases in Somalia and Qatar, runs terror training camps in Syria and Libya, and has transformed an airport in occupied Cyprus into a base from which drones can strike Lebanon, Israel, and Egypt.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to sell Turkey advanced Meteor air-to-air missiles for its Eurofighter Typhoon jets only heightens the threat. Turkey’s drones are now staples in the arsenals of dictators and terror sponsors from Ethiopia and Somalia to Pakistan.
Turkey is open about its ambitions. Its annual Blue Homeland naval exercises span the Mediterranean, Aegean, and Black Seas. At the Saha Expo 2024 in Istanbul, Turkey, the Turkish government unveiled plans for its Milli Uçak Gemisi (MUGEM) or National Aircraft Carrier.
The West should take Turkey’s ambitions seriously. A Turkish aircraft carrier fitted to fly the latest drones and fighter jets could change the operational environment across the Mediterranean, if not into the Red Sea and Indian Ocean. Creating such a capability might be expensive, but Erdoğan understands the Turkish mentality: Turks have become so brainwashed to see military resurgence and great power ambition as an entitlement that they will bury financial propriety to achieve it.
Greece is on more solid footing because, unlike Turkey, Greece does not aspire to becoming an imperial power nor does Athens set up illegitimate vassal states such Turkey does on northern Cyprus.
Greece, Cyprus, and even Israel is in no position to engage in arms race with Turkey. To do so would be financially ruinous and of only questionable value.
Greece’s economy is an economic engine on the upswing, while mismanagement and inflation choke Turkey’s prospects. Turkey once aspired to be one of the world’s top ten industrial and manufacturing countries; today, it is rapidly sliding out of the top 20.
Greece is on more solid footing because, unlike Turkey, Greece does not aspire to becoming an imperial power nor does Athens set up illegitimate vassal states such Turkey does on northern Cyprus.
Still, Greece should not tolerate Turkey’s ambitions, especially as Turkey’s wobbling economy and declining population growth rate—now below the rate of replacement—make it more likely that a future Turkey will lash out militarily to distract from its inextricable decline.
A Turkish aircraft carrier represents a grave threat from Corfu to Chios, and from Cyprus to Crete, but tere is a simple solution: Carrier-killer missiles. China has developed DF-21 and DF-26 missiles with ranges up to 1,500 and 5,000 kilometers respectively, both of which have anti-carrier variants. China is also developing a new class of hypersonic missiles that challenge U.S. sea power.
Greece as a NATO member cannot purchase Chinese missiles, even if U.S. ally Saudi Arabia did. The United States, however, is currently developing Hypersonic Air Launched Offensive Anti-Surface (HALO) missiles to blunt the threat from enemy ships. The AGM-158C Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) is already in production.
It represents a significant upgrade from the Harpoon anti-ship missile, especially with its incorporation of autonomous targeting. As a shipping power itself, Greece should prioritize the capability as the next step in the trilateral partnership with the United States and Cyprus.
Participation in both programs should be affordable but, regardless, the capability to sink Turkey’s aircraft carrier and other shipping is a strategic necessity.
Turkey can invest in large military platforms, but Turks should realize: Erdoğan squanders their finances and legacies. Bombastic Turkish rhetoric aside, a Turkish aircraft carrier would not buy power but would only become scrap metal and a watery grave for any Turks unfortunate enough to be on the ship when Erdoğan makes his fatal misjudgment.
