MEF Chief Editor Jim Hanson discusses the end of the Assad regime and how the actions of Russia, Iran and Turkey will affect the outcome with FOX News.
FOX: Jim Hanson served in the Army Special Forces. He joins us now. Thanks for joining us, Jim.
So is there any sense that civilians in Syria saw this coming before, say, a week ago when we started getting reports of of intensified fighting?
Hanson: I mean that that fighting there has ebbed and flowed so much over the years that it’s hard for anyone to to predict how it was going to play out. I think most everyone was surprised by the rapid collapse. And while no one is gonna mourn the end of the chinless wonder Assad’s regime, I’m not sure this brings any kind of stability or peace or anything good. The guys who have, at this point, taken over are Islamist, jihadist, bad guys, and I’m concerned they may wanna form their own caliphate, a la ISIS, and this could turn into just a bigger mess than it was even under Assad.
FOX: What does it tell you about the current state of Iran and Russia? Yeah,
Hanson: They lost out. I mean, they had major investments in Syria, in the Assad regime. The Iranians were using it to run weapons down to Lebanon, and the Russians had a warm water port, an air base, and and an ability to project power in the region. They cut and ran along with Assad. So, at this point, the big winner is Erdogan in Turkey. And he’s not a good guy.
He may be a NATO ally, and Turkey is a NATO ally, but he’s also an Islamist. He’s backing the bad guys, you know the opposition rebels who took over now. And I’m not sure, he might not have his own you know ideas that he could be the the regional leader, a caliph or a sultan or something. He believes Turkey is the natural you know center of power for the Islamic world.
FOX: It does seem like, standing on the the sidelines, you have Israel and Turkey, both of whom have you know incredible concerns about what happens there. You know What might we expect to see Turkey and Israel do in response to all of this?
Hanson: Israel’s already flexing into the Golan Heights and into the southern parts of Lebanon, just on the idea that that may stir itself back up you know as as things go. I’m concerned, actually, the Russians may be the ones who don’t take this lying down. Everyone seems to be saying they’re overextended because of Ukraine, and that’s true. But they also, in the long run, do not want to lose that warm water port there. The one they’ve got in Crimea, they happen to occasionally get their boats sunk there.
So I don’t think they want to count on that as their only one. But I think we may see some some back and forth action as the you know major powers decide who gets to control what’s going on in Syria, and that’s going to be messy for everyone.
FOX: Sure. But if Russia is that concerned about it, why would they have allowed this to happen in the 1st place by basically withdrawing support for Assad?
Hanson: Yeah, it’s a question of, did they have the ability to project enough force there and protect their their naval vessels? I think they might have been concerned that their port there, the vessels there were in the same kind of danger, the ones were over from Ukrainian action, and they didn’t want to lose them and be seen as a weak force there, unable to do it. Now, getting pushed out is is never a good look, but losing major naval vessels, I think, is a worse one.
