This April will mark the 50th anniversary of the start of Lebanon’s civil war. Palestinians, Israel, Syria, and postrevolutionary Iran played out their own regional Great Game in what was once a placid and cosmopolitan country. Beirut transformed from the Paris of the Middle East to its Mogadishu. The shaky peace of the 1990s allowed a slight recovery, but the threat of violence was never far away.
The main culprit in recent years is Hezbollah. The Iranian proxy group embraced the rhetoric of democracy and Lebanese nationalism, but its actions suggested a darker agenda. Hezbollah’s weapons, first and foremost, served to suppress other Lebanese and to signal that the group would achieve through the barrel of a gun whatever it could not in the ballot box. The talk of Lebanese nationalism was also empty. Not only did Hezbollah continue its anti-Israel terrorism after the United Nations certified Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon, but Hezbollah sent thousands of young Lebanese to their deaths in the Syrian civil war, fighting not on Lebanon’s behalf but instead on Iran’s.
Many of America’s first diplomats in the Middle East were sons of missionaries raised in Beirut. France, meanwhile, saw itself as protector of Lebanon’s Maronite Christians.
Lebanon has its backers, chief among them the United States and France. Both countries have deep roots in the country. Many of America’s first diplomats in the Middle East were sons of missionaries raised in Beirut. France, meanwhile, saw itself as protector of Lebanon’s Maronite Christians.
Both the White House and Élysée Palace also sought peace in the country, and both have deployed their militaries when necessary. In 1958, President Dwight Eisenhower sent 14,000 soldiers and Marines to Lebanon to prevent Arab nationalist reactionaries from ousting its president. Twenty-five years later, both the United States and France, alongside Great Britain, sent a multinational peacekeeping force only to withdraw it under fire after Hezbollah bombed first the U.S. and French embassies and later the U.S. Marine Barracks and French Paratrooper Barracks.
In the aftermath of 1983, the U.S. and French approaches diverged. While Washington seeks peace that marginalizes reactionary forces, Paris prefers to appease spoilers.
In practice, this has meant that Paris has been Hezbollah’s biggest diplomatic benefactor in the West. There is also an element of cynicism to French actions as the French hope the terror group will bypass French interests in any terror actions and perhaps even send some contracts France’s way.
After Israel’s audacious and rapid-fire decimation of Hezbollah’s political and military leaders, the group is reeling; it has lost its influence over the presidency, and the fear Hezbollah could once exert over ordinary Lebanese has evaporated. Lebanon, for the first time in more than 40 years, has an opportunity to deliver a knockout blow to the group.
Macron is pushing for Samir Assaf, a French citizen, personal friend, and long-time banker with HSBC to take over the central bank.
To do so requires three anti-Hezbollah officials in three positions: The presidency, the premiership, and the governor of the central bank. Lebanon has achieved the first two with the appointment of Joseph Aoun to the presidency and the designation of Nawaf Salam as the next prime minister.
Discussions are now underway to determine the central bank’s leadership. Macron is pushing for Samir Assaf, a French citizen, personal friend to Macron, and long-time banker with HSBC to take over. Assaf is capable but lacks real knowledge of Lebanese politics. Lebanese deride him as a parachute candidate and warn he would tend to follow Macron’s dictates to accommodate Hezbollah.
Others, like Karim Souaid, a former managing director of Global Investment Banking at HSBC Bank and Harvard Law School alum, have the same professional credentials and respect but have a demonstrated history of opposing Hezbollah.
This coming decision will shape President Donald Trump’s legacy in Lebanon: He can be the president who ends Hezbollah’s four decades of terrorism and tyranny, or he can be the man who allowed Macron to run rings around him and keep Lebanon’s bank open for Hezbollah business. Trump is a big-picture man, but sometimes success lies in the details.
