Not only did Lebanese celebrate Joseph Aoun’s rise to Lebanon’s presidency, but so too did many Americans, Europeans, and Arabs.
Aoun—no relation to the pro-Hezbollah former president Michel Aoun—was a no-nonsense general who despised Hezbollah and sought to orient Lebanon firmly in the West. When Israel emasculated Hezbollah, Aoun stepped up.
Aoun has appointed technocratic advisors who work as a team toward a common goal: Putting Lebanon back on stable footing.
He was the right man at the right time to lead the country, and Hezbollah’s downfall gave him the opportunity to put Lebanese nationalism first.
Aoun’s first months have been positive. He has appointed technocratic advisors who work as a team toward a common goal: Putting Lebanon back on stable footing. He has his work cut out for him. The World Bank’s “Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment” released earlier this month estimates Lebanon’s recovery and reconstruction will cost donors $11 billion.
That would be a non-starter when Hezbollah was a power able to siphon off billions, but it is now essentially shut out. When it comes to corruption and dysfunction, Hezbollah did not have the monopoly. Lebanese identify Randa Berri, wife of Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri, as perhaps the country’s most corrupt public figure. Nor was Hezbollah the only militia.
After the civil war, Christian leader Samir Geagea’s Lebanese Forces remained a potent local force. In sharp dissonance to the desires of ordinary Lebanese who want a normal system and functional state, many Lebanese party leaders seek only to redistribute power amongst themselves. The key to Aoun’s success will be to assemble his team quickly and push ahead before reactionary forces organize their resistance.
At issue are two important vacancies: The governor of the Lebanese Central Bank and Aoun’s successor as commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces.
Alas, Aoun may be squandering his moment. At issue are two important vacancies: The governor of the Lebanese Central Bank and Aoun’s successor as commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces. Both must not only be highly competent and honest professionals, but also Lebanese nationalists who put the country above their own community or sect; they should have a demonstrated track record
Growthgate Capital’s Karim Souaid is the leading candidate to be Central Bank governor, perhaps the most important post after the president. Riad Salameh, the previous governor, was a good economist but he gave into temptation and not only enriched himself but greenlighted the corruption schemes of various political elites.
He is now in prison but is a dead man walking; he simply knows too much about the malfeasance of others, all of whom have an interest in ensuring he never talks. French President Emmanuel Macron has proposed other candidates, but they invariably are either weak on Hezbollah or have no track record of countering the group.
The second post that Aoun must fill is who will take over the leadership of the Lebanese Armed Forces. Here, there are two good candidates. One is Brigadier General Rudolph Haykal, the current director of operations (G3 OPS), or perhaps Brigadier General Johnny Akl, commander of the Logistics Brigade. Both Haykal and Akl are competent military professionals; neither allowed Hezbollah to compromise them.
Aoun’s mistake is he waits for a green light from Washington. He should not.
Traditionally, protocol dictated that the U.S. Department of the Treasury sign off on the Central Bank governorship and the Pentagon sign off on the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces. Neither position acted as a U.S. puppet but the reality was Congress would not give assistance Lebanon needed if either institution did not have someone in place whose competence Washington trusted.
Aoun’s mistake is he waits for a green light from Washington. He should not. The Trump administration neither has its team in place nor is Trump inclined to such details. Trump’s philosophy is the United States can hold countries to account for their behavior without micromanagement. He wants Aoun to do the right thing absent U.S. signoff.
The longer Aoun waits to appoint Souaid and Haykal, the more difficult the appointments will be as every day that passes gives Aoun’s opponents time to organize. Aoun has enemies, especially among the pro-Hezbollah and corrupt powerbrokers whose influence he seeks to upend.
Rather than squander momentum, Aoun must seize it; otherwise, he will have no one to blame for his failure but himself.
