On April 9–12, 2025, the Delphi Economic Forum hosted a panel discussion (video; transcript) on “Eastern Mediterranean Contributions to Middle East Security” in partnership with the Middle East Forum. The session, moderated by Thanos Davelis (director of public affairs for the Hellenic American Leadership Council), featured distinguished experts including Michael Rubin (director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum), Gregg Roman (executive director of the Middle East Forum), Jonathan Spyer (director of research at the Middle East Forum), and Ian Lesser (Distinguished Fellow at the German Marshall Fund).
Regional Integration and Strategic Importance
The panel began by addressing how the Eastern Mediterranean has evolved since the discovery of natural gas approximately 15 years ago, which transformed regional relationships. As noted by Davelis in his introduction, ties have expanded beyond Greece, Cyprus, and Israel to include Middle Eastern countries, the United States, and the European Union, moving well beyond energy into the security realm. This relationship has taken on new significance in the post-October 7 Middle East environment.
Rubin emphasized that the Eastern Mediterranean has become increasingly important in the 21st century. He highlighted the strategic significance of facilities like Suda Bay in Greece and noted that the Sixth Fleet is no longer just passing through the region, but making it a destination. He further stressed that cooperation between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus has fundamentally reworked the strategic calculation for the United States.
Turkey: The Regional Challenge
All panelists identified Turkey as a major destabilizing force in the region. Rubin described Turkey as “the elephant in the room,” noting that even if the Trump administration doesn’t address Turkey directly, the “Turkey problem isn’t going to be wished away,” making the Israel-Greece-Cyprus partnership even more important.
Spyer added that Turkey is pursuing “a very aggressive path and a very aggressive strategy across a very broad swath of territory.”
Roman provided a stark assessment, stating that Turkey hosts Sunni terror groups similar to how Iran hosts Shia and other Sunni terror groups, pointing out that the murders of “the most vile terror organization that Israel considers—Hamas,” were “planned in Istanbul and carried out in Gaza and in the West Bank and in Israel proper.” He emphasized that Turkey has used Syrian militias as proxies that “killed thousands of Alawis in Latakia and Tartus.”
Spyer added that Turkey is pursuing “a very aggressive path and a very aggressive strategy across a very broad swath of territory,” employing “semi-state paramilitary actors as servants of Turkish policy” in Syria, Libya, and Azerbaijan.
Security Cooperation Success Stories
The panel highlighted several successful security initiatives. Spyer noted that cooperation between Israel, Cyprus, and Greece has already yielded tangible results, citing the interception of terror attempts, including “a very serious attack planned on a Jewish and Israeli site in Cyprus” in June 2023 and the arrest of two Iranian citizens in October of the same year.
Rubin specifically mentioned the Cyclops facility in Cyprus, which has made Cyprus “indispensable with that facility in terms of port security, airport security, chemical, biological, radiological weapons detection.” He emphasized that Cyprus has leveraged its position as “one of the only trusted partners in the region” by all different factions and countries.
Energy Infrastructure and Economic Integration
A significant portion of the discussion focused on energy cooperation, particularly the EastMed pipeline and the Great Sea Interconnector. Roman described Greece as “the Democratic gateway for Middle Eastern countries, and especially Israel, by way of Cyprus to become connected in the Euro-Med Partnership” through pipelines, the electric Interconnector, and joint defense treaties.
Regarding the Great Sea Interconnector, Roman explained that Israel is “ready to provide security for the eastern side of that, the eastern side going from Cyprus to Israel,” and noted there is “a desire right now for the Israeli prime minister to visit Athens, along with his Greek and Cypriot counterparts, to create a strategic dialogue” to address security issues.
U.S. Policy and Concerns
The panel expressed concern about the Trump administration’s approach to Turkey. Spyer called it “a mystery” why the “existence of that strategy and the danger that it represents does not appear to be apparent to the people currently guiding U.S. policy.” He found it “strange” when President Trump referred to Erdoğan as “a good guy” during a recent press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.
Roman emphasized the need to “educate the president and his staff” about the threat Erdoğan presents not just to regional allies but to “U.S. national security and economic interests in the Eastern Mediterranean.”
Lesser noted that the U.S.-Turkey relationship is “hanging on this personal thing” between Trump and Erdoğan, which could change quickly, creating serious implications given that “the United States has İncirlik airbase as well. Of course there are nuclear weapons sitting in Incirlik airbase.”
Roman expressed hope that when Erdoğan “pushes too far” and threatens U.S. interests, especially regarding American energy companies like Chevron and ExxonMobil in the region, the relationship with Turkey would deteriorate. He emphasized the need to “educate the president and his staff” about the threat Erdoğan presents not just to regional allies but to “U.S. national security and economic interests in the Eastern Mediterranean.”
Future Regional Concerns
The panelists concluded by identifying pressing concerns for the future:
Rubin warned about potential Turkish development of nuclear weapons, cautioning that Turkey might “use NATO as a shield” while building up a nuclear program that “would be a danger to Europe, a danger to Israel, and a danger, frankly, to many of the Arab states.” He also emphasized that Turkey will not revert to its pre-Erdoğan position even after he eventually leaves power.
Spyer highlighted the situation in Syria, particularly “the arrival of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to Damascus on December 8”of the previous year, which “represented a strategic triumph for Turkey.” He warned about “a Turkish, Islamist Syria” potentially forming and mentioned plans for “another exclusive economic zone agreement in the Eastern Mediterranean, between Turkey and the new client government in Damascus.”
Lesser concluded by mentioning two additional concerns: “Turkish and other stakes in reconstruction in Lebanon and Syria,” and the issue of migration, which he described as “a huge one.”
