Winfield Myers

Michael Rubin

Director of Policy Analysis

Michael Rubin specializes in Iran, Turkey and the Horn of Africa. His career includes time as a Pentagon official, with field experiences in Iran, Yemen, and Iraq, as well as engagements with the Taliban prior to 9/11. Mr. Rubin has also contributed to military education, teaching U.S. Navy and Marine units about regional conflicts and terrorism. His scholarly work includes several key publications, such as “Dancing with the Devil” and “Eternal Iran.” Rubin earned his Ph.D. and M.A. in history and a B.S. in biology from Yale University.

Articles by this Author
While every president from President George H.W. Bush to Barack Obama spoke of China as a possible partner rather than a rival and sought to co-opt Beijing, President Donald Trump’s first term left a legacy of establishing a bipartisan consensus that China was an adversary.
Middle East Forum Online
End Major U.S. Non-NATO Ally Status for China’s Cronies
An Increasing Number of Non-NATO Allies Flirt With, If Not Tilt Toward, Beijing
August 13, 2026
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Michael Rubin
The core of the model should be the removal of Iranian Qods Force Chief Qassem Soleimani. Soleimani believed himself untouchable but, on January 3, 2020, Iranians woke up to the news that an MQ-9 Reaper drone (similar to the one above) firing Hellfire missiles had taken out Qassem Soleimani on the airport road in Baghdad. The regime blustered but ultimately could do nothing.
Middle East Forum Online
Decapitation as Strategy: The Case for Targeting Iran’s Command Structure
The Iranian President, Flag Officers, and Intelligence Chief Should Rise to Their Positions Knowing They Will Have a Lifespan of Weeks, If Not Days
August 13, 2026
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Michael Rubin
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
Middle East Forum Observer
Ukraine Should Target Bashar Al-Assad in Moscow
Striking Assad Would Embarrass Putin and Shake the Air of Invincibility That He Seeks to Construct
August 12, 2026
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Michael Rubin
A Freedom for Iran Protest in 2023 in London, urging the British government to register the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization.
Middle East Forum Observer
Iran Needs an Insurgency
If the World Withdraws, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Will Consider It a Green Light to Purge Those Who Resist Its Vision
August 4, 2026
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Michael Rubin
Just as U.S. troops slowly succumbed to cancers due to Agent Orange exposure during the Vietnam War and burn pits during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, chemical weapons residue on Abu Musa is a threat that U.S. planners should not ignore.
Middle East Forum Online
Has Iran Stored Chemical Weapons? Are the Marines Ready for Them?
The Island of Abu Musa Has Been Rumored to Be One of Iran’s Main Repositories for Chemical Weapons.
August 3, 2026
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Michael Rubin
A view of the Spanish enclave of Ceuta and its two bays.
Middle East Forum Observer
Does Spain Understand the Irony Underlying the Crisis in Ceuta?
If Criticism of Spain’s Position on Ceuta and Melilla Surprised Madrid, It Is Not Because Such Arguments Suddenly Emerged
August 3, 2026
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Michael Rubin
Not only has Somaliland held eight elections, but it became the first country in the world to secure voter registration with biometric iris scans. Somalia, meanwhile, has squandered ore than $2 billion in international election assistance but has yet to hold a single direct election or accept universal suffrage.
Middle East Forum Online
Armenia Should Recognize Somaliland
Somalilanders Identify with Armenians for Multiple Reasons
August 2, 2026
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Michael Rubin
Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) sails in support of Operation Epic Fury, March 3, 2026. Image: U.S. Navy photo
Middle East Forum Observer
Can the U.S. Navy Continue Replenishment at Sea for Its Iran and Houthi Operations?
A More Robust U.S. Presence in Somaliland Is Necessary to Handle the Logistics of Resupply and Provide Air Defense
August 2, 2026
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Michael Rubin
Both Somaliland’s clan structure and vibrant democratic culture make bribery in Chinese leadership more difficult, since secrecy is harder to maintain. Shame matters. Exposure of any leader taking bribes would be swift, and such exposure would stigmatize tens of thousands through clan association. Image: Hargeisa in May 2024.
Middle East Forum Online
China Offered Somaliland More than a Quarter of a Billion Dollars to Drop Taiwan. Somaliland Said No
While Somaliland Is Impoverished, It Is Also Principled
July 31, 2026
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Michael Rubin
President Donald Trump and U.S. Envoy Massad Boulos, to the left of Trump, meet with African leaders at the White House in July 2025.
Middle East Forum Observer
Any U.S. Bet on Eritrea Is a Losing Move
U.S. Envoy Boulos Has Raised Eyebrows Throughout the Region Because of His Confusing Strategic Logic
July 31, 2026
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Michael Rubin
While Somaliland is entirely Muslim, it is anti-Islamist not only in rhetoric but also in deed. While terrorism is a weekly feature of life in Mogadishu, Somalia, there has not been a terrorist attack in Somaliland in almost 20 years.
Middle East Forum Online
The U.S. Should Embrace Somaliland to Break Iranian and the Houthi Trade Chokeholds
Somaliland Is Crucial to Winning the War Because of Its Strategic Geography, Including a 530-Mile Coastline on the Gulf of Aden
July 29, 2026
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Michael Rubin
If Saudi Arabia wants to maintain security in the Red Sea and cease the Houthi stranglehold over the Bab el-Mandeb, above, it should start working with Somaliland.
Middle East Forum Online
Saudi Arabia Bought off the Houthis. Now They Are Blockading Its Ports
Appeasing Extremists and Terror Sponsors Seldom Brings Peace
July 28, 2026
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Michael Rubin
Prime Minister Abd al-Hamid Dbeibeh of Libya's Tripoli-based government.
Middle East Forum Observer
Dbeibeh and the Grand Mufti Are the Main Impediments to Libyan Unity. Both Must Go
Expecting Eastern Libya to Make Concessions in the Face of Tripoli-Sponsored Terrorism Is Foolish
July 26, 2026
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Michael Rubin
The port of Benghazi, Libya.
Middle East Forum Observer
Deliberate Blindness Undercuts U.S. Diplomacy in Libya
The State Department’s Absence in Benghazi Trades Intelligence for Spin and Rumor
July 24, 2026
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Michael Rubin
The University of Sirte in Libya.
Middle East Forum Observer
Visa Ban Will Undercut American Interests for a Generation
The State Department Has Never Accused a Libyan Student or Somalilander of Engaging in Terrorism
July 23, 2026
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Michael Rubin
The port of Kyrenia, Northern Cyprus.
Middle East Forum Observer
Compromising with Turkey on Cyprus Will Lead to War in the Aegean
The U.N. Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy for Cyprus Will Soon Unveil a Deal to Resolve Problems with ‘Constructive Ambiguity’
July 20, 2026
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Michael Rubin
President Donald Trump recognizes that American investment is key to peace. But dire warnings increase insurance rates and dissuade businessmen who may not realize the warnings are decades out of date. Image: Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaking to reporters outside the Oval Office at the White House; March 20, 2026.
Middle East Forum Online
Marco Rubio Must Confront Lazy, Outdated State Department Travel Warnings
Overwrought Warnings Do Harm
July 16, 2026
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Michael Rubin
Iran’s sense of nationhood predates the ethno-nationalism around which European states began to organize in the 19th century. Iranians see a near-contiguous history dating back to the Persian Empire of millennia past. Image: an ethnic Bakhtiari young man in his traditional clothes, with ancient Persian reliefs behind him, in Persepolis, Iran; April 2, 2018.
Middle East Forum Online
There’s One Move That Could Keep Iran’s Hated Regime in Power—And Washington Insiders Keep Pushing for It
Magic Formulas Do Not Exist
July 14, 2026
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Michael Rubin
Inside the new Gulf of Sirte Airport in Libya.
Middle East Forum Observer
Benghazi 2026 Is Dubai 1994
Libyans Want Unity, but They Do Not Want Unity to Absolve Failure and Corruption
July 13, 2026
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Michael Rubin
Sirte, Libya is located along the central Mediterranean coast.
Middle East Forum Observer
Sirte as Libya’s New Capital Could Advance Unity and Security
Halfway Between Tripoli and Benghazi, Sirte Is Also the Gateway to Sebha, the Regional Capital of Libya’s South
July 12, 2026
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Michael Rubin