On September 2, 2024, Turkey [Türkiye] formally applied to join the BRICS group of emerging economies. Turkey’s embrace of BRICS comes as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also signals a desire to elevate Turkey from being a dialogue partner within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the China- and Russia- led cooperation bloc, to becoming an observer state if not a full member.
On one hand, Turkey’s BRICS application is a tacit acknowledgement that Erdoğan’s dreams of achieving a top ten economy have crashed upon the shoals of his own mismanagement; Turkey’s economy now ranks 18th in the world and continues to fall. The broader challenge, on the other hand, is diplomatic. While BRICS is technically an economic group, it does carry broader overtones as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, from whom the BRICS acronym derives, seek to create an alternate financial system that would undermine the U.S. dollar as the primary currency for international trade. In short, Erdoğan is once again allying with Moscow and Beijing to diminish Europe and the United States.
The next U.S. administration should treat Turkey’s bid as the diplomatic equivalent of its S-400 anti-aircraft purchase. Rather than treat the S-400 as just a potential contract lost, the Trump administration recognized that Erdoğan’s turn toward Russia posed a continuing challenge. To integrate the S-400 into Turkey’s defense would mean exposing NATO secrets to Kremlin engineers. Even if Turkey firewalled the S-400, it could pose a threat to the F-35 Joint Strike Fighters that the United States and NATO sought to keep as the backbone of future defense against Russia or China. Stationed in close proximity to the F-35s, the S-400 radar could help Turkey perfect tracking of the stealth aircraft. To extricate itself from the threat, the Trump administration agreed to downgrade U.S. military investment in Turkey and remove Turkey from the F-35 program.
With its BRICS application and Erdoğan’s desire to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, it is time to extend the military quarantine to the diplomatic sphere. Turkey long ago ceased behaving as a NATO member should; rather than enhance the alliance, it undermines it. While Turkey no longer should be a NATO member, it has not been possible to expel it since the NATO Treaty lacks any mechanism to expel wayward members.
Turkey’s pivot to BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization reinforces that this legal stalemate is no longer tenable. To make an extreme analogy, to be affiliated with both NATO and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization simultaneously would be like sharing membership in the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) and the Ku Klux Klan. BRICS may not be as extreme as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, but it is quickly moving in that direction. As India’s economy becomes the world’s third largest, there are signs that India might leave the grouping because it no longer represents its interests. The rest of the group, though, embrace illiberalism. Brazil and South Africa, for example, erode speech and property rights. New member Ethiopia has sought to conduct genocide against its Tigray population. BRICS increasingly is an organization that provides cover for autocrats and those seeking to overturn the liberal order. Simply put, with Russia and Iran (which joined BRICS on January 1, 2024) now NATO’s top two threats, Erdoğan signals his desire to be in partnership with both.
There can be no more delay. As long as Turkey remains in NATO, the United States and Europe must quarantine it so that Turkey does not betray their interests to their enemies. Turkey should face sanctions and actions as damaging to its image and capabilities as its expulsion from the F-35 program.
Here, the U.S. diplomatic posture toward Iran and Russia could provide a guidepost. The Foreign Missions Act, for example, allows the Secretary of State to limit travel of foreign diplomats stationed in the United States. Should Iranian diplomats at the United Nations in New York travel beyond a 25-mile radius, for example, they would face detention and expulsion. Diplomats from Belarus, Cuba, Eritrea, North Korea, Russia, Syria, and Venezuela face similar restrictions in Washington and/or New York. Chinese diplomats, meanwhile, must provide formal notice of travel and meetings. With Turkey’s diplomatic turn toward China, Russia, and Venezuela, it clearly belongs on this list too, regardless of its NATO membership. Certainly, Turkey would act reciprocally, and demand American diplomats not stray from Ankara, Istanbul, or Izmir; the price would be worth it. But in both cases, the sanction need not be permanent. Should Turkey withdraw its BRICS bid and end its Shanghai Cooperation Organization move, then Washington and Ankara might simply return their relations to the status quo ante.
Diplomacy is an important tool, but it is not all about happily drinking raki or picking at Turkish delight and baklava with Turkish colleagues; rather, effective diplomacy must calibrate state policy toward the reality of partners or adversaries. In Turkey’s case, it is time for an immediate quarantine.
