Ferris, a historian of the modern Middle East and vice president at the Israel Democracy Institute, argues that Israel should assume Iran has developed nuclear weapons and wants Jerusalem to be prepared with a comprehensive strategy, taking into account a potential arms race involving countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
He argues that Cold War-style nuclear deterrence will not work in the Middle East because Iran’s extremist ideology and support for terror groups make it a unique threat. Tehran might even empower its proxies with nuclear capabilities. In response, Ferris advocates several steps for Israel to take.
- End the longstanding policy of nuclear ambiguity. As multiple Middle Eastern states may acquire nuclear capabilities, transparency would strengthen Israel’s deterrent.
- Enhance the civil defense infrastructure to address nuclear threats. This includes updated public safety protocols, specialized shelters, population dispersion strategies, and advanced missile defense systems to intercept nuclear missiles.
- Develop preemptive strike plans rather than rely solely on a second-strike capability. Even after nuclear weapons are introduced, he argues, Israel could disrupt or eliminate such threats through conventional means.
- Strengthen ties with regional allies like Egypt and Jordan to promote stability. He advocates that Israel lead international non-proliferation initiatives to deter potential nuclear escalation.
Published in 2022, Shall Not Fall Again came out before the direct confrontation between Israel and Iran that followed Oct. 7. Recent developments – such as changes in the strength of Hamas and Hezbollah and Iran’s readiness to engage in direct conflict with Israel – could well turn what were once theoretical strategies into practical ones.