Eric Navarro, director of the Middle East Forum (MEF) Red Sea Security Initiative (RSSI), is a Lieutenant Colonel in the Marine Corps Reserves and author of God Willing: My Wild Ride with the New Iraqi Army, which details his experiences as one of the first embedded advisors to the new Iraqi army. Navarro spoke to a March 17 Middle East Forum Podcast (video). The following summarizes his comments:
Twelve to 15 percent of global trade moves through these trade routes in the Red Sea.
The civil war launched a decade ago by the Iran-backed Ansar Allah, a.k.a. Houthi rebels, against the recognized government in Yemen was expanded in November 2023 when the Houthis attacked global shipping passing through the Red Sea trade routes and the Gulf of Aden. “Twelve to 15 percent of global trade moves through these trade routes in the Red Sea. You’ve seen a 60 to 70 percent decrease in total tonnage thorough the Suez Canal, which has directly resulted in about $7 billion plus loss of revenue for the Egyptian government alone.” The resulting increase in shipping costs from disrupted supply chains has affected economies in Asia and Europe with higher energy costs and increased insurance premiums for ships forced to traverse longer routes around Africa. “So, you’re seeing a ripple effect across the entire global economy.”
Security in the overall region suffered from the Houthis’ mass production of drones and “precision-guided ballistic missile” capabilities, courtesy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which directly target U.S. and Israeli assets, “especially after the Gaza War.” In a welcome change from the Obama-Biden foreign policy team’s “incompetent” and “feckless” policies, which hoped for “some type of a nuclear agreement” by appeasing the mullahs in Tehran, President Trump has undertaken a “more robust and aggressive” campaign. Thus, he has “authorized recent military strikes against key individuals of the Houthis as well as key C2 nodes—command and control nodes.”
The Houthis’ missile capabilities do not consist of “a couple of dumb bombs here or there. They’re demonstrating an improvement in their range and precision.” Defense Secretary Hegseth stated publicly that the campaign’s intention is to stop Houthi attacks on any vessel going through the Red Sea. President Trump “demonstrated the will to take action” by retaliating against the Iranian regime’s destabilization of the region via its Houthi proxy.
In furtherance of the Trump administration’s goal of eliminating the Houthi threat, MEF’s RSSI intends to “mobilize U.S. policymakers, global shipping leaders, and security experts to forge a coordinated response” and achieve long-term regional security. Unless these objectives are met, the Houthis will reconstitute and renew their attacks. A military strategy entails “leveraging the other instruments of power like diplomacy, economics, information, [and] intelligence” by partnering with allies in the region, including the recognized government of Yemen, the Southern Transition Council, the Saudis, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Israel, and Oman.
A comprehensive strategy includes directly targeting Houthi missile stockpiles with U.S. strikes to disrupt the Houthis’ land- and sea-based weapons and supply chains.
RSSI’s role is to be a bridge between policymakers and global shipping stakeholders to “develop a coherent strategy” and “root out” the Houthis by including insurers and other companies and industries affected by global trade. A comprehensive strategy includes directly targeting Houthi missile stockpiles with U.S. strikes to disrupt the Houthis’ land- and sea-based weapons and supply chains. It also requires “maritime exclusion zones” to interdict Iranian and other illegal sources of weaponry that are traced back to the Iranian regime.
While it is feasible to eliminate the threat posed to global shipping as well as to the Yemeni people and its recognized government, the Houthis will likely remain as “harassing insurgents.” The aim is to shrink their hold on large parts of territory and deny their ability to affect global trade routes. The U.S. “can’t be the only ones that patrol and secure global trade routes.” In the short term, the U.S. can take the lead, but beyond that a coalition needs to be built that will enable the regional powers to defend their own interests and trade.
“Power politics 101” dictates that incentivizing a coalition to achieve an end goal “must use every lever available to us to achieve that end state.” Regional countries adversely affected by the Houthi threat, such as Egypt, which is supposed to protect the Suez Canal, are “looking for leadership, which they didn’t have in the last administration.” Air power alone cannot neutralize the Houthis, but “it doesn’t have to be U.S. boots on the ground.” Specific weapons provided to the Yemeni government and Southern Transition Council forces, covert actions, electronic and cyber warfare, and unmanned and undersea drones are all instruments that can empower regional allies. A constitutional instrument, “letters of marque and reprisal,” enables the U.S. government to “authorize privateers to conduct military actions.” Such forces can conduct offensive operations, “a perfect tool for the Trump administration to consider, because they’re all about maximizing return on investment, while minimizing direct risk to U.S. forces.”
Achieving “a lasting regional security” includes advocating “for our own America first interests, but then for our allies’ interests.”
Naysayers question why the U.S. is taking action against the Houthis and “want [the U.S.] to leave the world stage almost altogether.” They should recognize that stepping up is in America’s national interest because the U.S. is affected by global trade disruptions. Moreover, we do not want China, America’s “number one geopolitical adversary” to fill the battlefield vacuum by securing the trade routes in our stead. There are reports that China is providing “supplies and arms to the Houthis in exchange for free passage in the Red Sea.” If the U.S. were to abandon its “forward presence,” China, with its intention to replace the U.S. as “the global hegemon,” would “gain a leverage point over us in a critical trade route.”
Achieving “a lasting regional security” includes advocating “for our own America first interests, but then for our allies’ interests.” A coalition joining America’s campaign by employing all the instruments of power advances their own long-term interests. “It’s also connected to our strategy against Iran, and ultimately, we have to decide what we can do to mitigate or even eliminate the threat that Iran poses to the region.”
