In a Middle East Forum (MEF)/American Jewish University (AJU) June 10 podcast (video), AJU’s Jeffrey Herbst moderated the fourth of a seven-part series of interviews titled “Israel’s Seven-Front War: Part Three: Syria”
Guest speaker: Hadeel Oueis, who leads communications on behalf of the Center for Peace Communications and is a reporter for the Saudi daily Al Riyadh. The following summarizes her comments:
Assad is from the minority sect of the Alawites, but even the Alawites are frustrated by Syria’s decline under Assad and want to see him go.
The Syrian uprising against the Bashar al-Assad regime that began in 2011 later devolved into a civil war trifurcating Syria. Less than two-thirds of Syria is currently under Assad’s control, with less than one-third in northeast Syria under the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), the U.S.-supported, Kurdish-led forces fighting ISIS. The remaining area is split between Syrian opposition forces, a Turkish-backed militia, and other Islamists led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former branch of al-Qaeda.
The area under Assad’s control is poverty-stricken, chaotic, and lacks any security, but the regime is aided by Iran-backed militias who ensure that the Syrian opposition will not gain more Syrian territory. Assad’s allies in Syria mainly comprise Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and Shia Afghani contractors.
Those who expressed opposition to Assad have been cowed by memories of the many thousands of Syrian civilians killed under Assad’s regime by Iranian-backed militias and Russia during the civil war. Although frustrated by Assad’s failure to provide basic needs, the displaced who lost their families no longer ask for democracy. They will settle for a stable economy, which is non-existent under the Assad regime.
Assad is from the minority sect of the Alawites, but even the Alawites are frustrated by Syria’s decline under Assad and want to see him go. Sanctions imposed on Syria worsen conditions, and Arab governments which recently restored relations with Assad are unwilling to aid the regime because of the control Iran exerts in Syria. Prior to the civil war, income for the regime came from expats overseas who sent foreign currency back to Syria, but after the war, the main source of income is from drugs. Captagon, the drug manufactured in Syria, is smuggled globally by Hezbollah via Latin American drug cartels.
The majority of the Syrian people who call for democratic change want regional peace, even peace with Israel.
The Iranian and Assad regimes are co-dependent. Syria is “the only official Arab government” to accept Iran operating in its country without limitations, and Iran is critical to Assad’s survival. In exchange for Iranian support, the Assad government hands over Syrian resources, such as its phosphate and oil fields, to Iran as well as to Russia, whose intervention helped prop up Assad while enabling Moscow to build political power and influence in the region.
In eastern Syria, jihadi influence fuels groups like ISIS, despite the military pressure applied by the SDC. Today, the presence of al-Qaeda-affiliated forces among the opposition is a draw for some Sunnis who are rejoining the forces to counter the increasing power in Syria of Iran’s Shia militias.
To counter the influence and lure of jihadi groups, the Center for Peace Communications and Jusoor News publicize news about Syrian communities distancing themselves from Islamism, antisemitism, jihadism, and extremism. The majority of the Syrian people who call for democratic change want regional peace, even peace with Israel. A sizable population of non-citizen Palestinians live in Syria’s Yarmouk camp, and many of them participated in the 2011 uprising clamoring for change. Assad’s forces and Iran’s Shia militias targeted them and killed thousands.
U.S. collaboration with the large sector of the population that wants to see the end of the Assad regime and stop Iran’s growing influence has the potential to leverage a better future for Syrians, “because a better future for Syrians would be a better future for the region.”
