On the night of September 14, 2019, the sound of explosions echoed through the oil fields of Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company, Aramco. An attack by around 30 cruise missiles and drones evaded Saudi radar systems, struck gas storage tanks, and forced their shutdown, causing a dramatic reduction in Saudi oil production. In one fell swoop, Saudi oil exports were slashed by more than 50%.
The attack, orchestrated by Iran, was described as “the most severe” since the burning of Kuwaiti oil fields by Iraq in 1991, during the Gulf War. After a week of anticipation for a significant American response, the Trump administration announced it would assist the Saudis and Emiratis with defensive forces and ammunition. This sealed the possibility of an American military strike following an assault on their Middle Eastern ally.
The Americans preferred to focus solely on future defense rather than an offensive strike. A feeble voice echoed across the Middle East, reverberating from Tehran to Moscow and Beijing.
The Americans preferred to focus solely on future defense rather than an offensive strike. A feeble voice echoed across the Middle East, reverberating from Tehran to Moscow and Beijing.
Incidentally, the Aramco incident should have also highlighted that Iran was establishing a direct conventional threat against Israel, not just a future nuclear threat. It’s doubtful whether Israel and the US understood this five years ago, but this week, that lesson finally sunk in.
Since the ayatollah regime took control of Iran, it has been patiently and ingeniously implementing a strategy aimed at creating a reality where the question mark over Israel’s existence becomes real, not just theoretical.
On the night of April 14, 2024, it seemed that two chinks appeared in the armor of Iran’s “strategic patience.” The first was Iran’s decision to attack from its sovereign territory rather than through proxies. The second was the choice of a complex timing when its proxies in Iraq and Syria had not completed the necessary force buildup for a perfect multi-front campaign against Israel on the one hand, while Iran itself lacked even minimal nuclear capability on the other.
Iran chose to respond to an Israeli offensive move with a massive barrage from its territory that was 10 times larger than the attack on Aramco. More significantly, Iran stopped being fearful. It engaged in a direct confrontation with Israel at a time that seemed suboptimal for itself and defiantly acted against an explicit American presidential warning not to proceed.
Let’s not be mistaken – the 99% interception rate is impressive, but it is a tactical achievement that does not restore Western deterrence or restore the strategic balance of power.
Iran’s overnight missile attack is a strong reminder of the loss of Israel’s and America’s strategic deterrence. The loss of Iranian fear is the most significant aspect of the Iranian missile attack – and it must be addressed. The “Don’t” threat from the world’s strongest man on the eve of the Iranian attack was met with indifference in Tehran, echoing the familiar Arabic expression “kalam fadi” (empty words). This is bad news for the US and even worse news for its allies in the region.
Let’s not be mistaken – the 99% interception rate is impressive, but it is a tactical achievement that does not restore Western deterrence or restore the strategic balance of power. However, conversely, an opportunity also emerged this week. The Iranian attack created a “do-over” for the failure to launch an offensive response after the Aramco incident, which led to the erosion of America’s standing in the region.
The overnight attack on Israel with over 330 airborne objects must not go down in the annals of Middle East history as “Aramco B”. Israel and the US must seize this attack to emerge from “strategic slumber.” The US has a strategic opportunity to restore its standing in the Middle East and reshape the global geopolitical order.
The free and moderate world looks up to the American superpower in three conflict zones: Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan, and Israel-Iran.
The first two conflict zones involve nuclear-capable powers, severely limiting American freedom of action. The US did not prevent the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and it is doubtful whether its conduct in the Middle East so far deters China from changing the strategic reality in the Indo-Pacific region. However, projecting American power against Iranian aggression would significantly bolster American deterrence in the inter-bloc struggle and signal to its allies, including Jordan and Saudi Arabia, that they have someone they can count on.
The fact that Israel’s enemies fear it less could lead to war in the Middle East, which runs against both Israeli and Western interests.
The free world was handed a rare opportunity on Saturday night to significantly slow down Iran’s nuclear race. A robust and combined offensive would establish a credible American threat against a nuclear Iran and signal to the Iranians that the free world will not accept a new North Korea in the Middle East. The US and the West have an opportunity to act against Iran in its role as Russia’s number one weapons partner. A just strike against the missile and drone facilities used in the attack on Israel and Saudi Arabia would indirectly damage capabilities aimed at Ukraine and improve the West’s position on that front as well.
Israel must strive to change the geopolitical status quo in the Middle East and stop the bleeding of its deterrent power in the region. The fact that Israel’s enemies fear it less could lead to war in the Middle East, which runs against both Israeli and Western interests. Israel should prioritize and focus efforts on trying to enlist the US, together with a significant Western coalition, to confront Iran’s current aggression, not just the emerging nuclear threat. This is necessary to restore the deterrence equation, ensure long-term stability, and prevent bloodshed and wars in the Middle East.
