Ten months ago, as Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant concluded a visit to Azerbaijan, he was effusive about Israel-Azerbaijan relations. He praised the growing “potential for defense, industrial and military exchanges,” and declared Azerbaijan to be “not only a strategic partner but also an asset.” Israel’s arms-for-energy trade with Azerbaijan has become a pillar of Israel’s national security strategy; Azerbaijan sales accounts for at least 40 percent of Israel’s oil. It would be difficult for Israel’s economy and industry to function without Azerbaijan, or without a shift to an alternative.
Alas, Israel’s enthusiastic embrace for Azerbaijan has been shortsighted. Azerbaijan may be independent, but it has long subordinated itself to Turkey’s interests. The late Azerbaijan President Heydar Aliyev, the father of the current president Ilham Aliyev, crystalized the concept with the slogan, “one nation, two states.” The Turkish military trains their Azerbaijani counterparts. Turkish and Azerbaijani intelligence are intricately linked. When Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threw a tantrum at Israel in 2012, Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s longtime intelligence chief (and current foreign minister), leaked details of alleged Israeli espionage in Iran based in part on what Fidan knew of the Israeli presence in Azerbaijan.
I observed Azerbaijan’s deference to Turkey on a personal level. The Azerbaijani embassy in Washington, DC, used to hold an annual Hanukah reception. They would invite me along with many other think tank scholars, diplomats, analysts, and journalists. Twice, I attended. Then the invitations stopped coming. I did not think too much about it. With young children, I avoided receptions in favor of diaper duty and toddler playdates. One day, however, a diplomat apologized to a mutual friend about it. He explained that the Turkish foreign minister had demarched his Azerbaijani counterpart in Baku with a list of Americans whom Erdogan wanted blacklisted because of their criticism of Erdogan. I was on the list. It was preposterous that any independent country would accept such a demand from another. My conclusion? Azerbaijan was more a satrapy for Turkey than an equal. It was not Donetsk to Russia, but it was coming close.
Because of his ideological affinity for Hamas, Erdogan has now severed trade ties with Israel in the wake of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks on Israel and Israel’s current operations against Hamas in Gaza.
With regard to Azerbaijan, Erdogan may go three ways. First, he may allow Azerbaijan to continue openly its lucrative energy trade with Israel from which his own family may profit. This opens him to charges of hypocrisy, though. He may also insist Azerbaijan publicly embargo Israel, but ignore shipments of oil through third parties. There is already a mechanism for this, as Iraqi Kurds ship oil to the Jewish state by shipping it through Turkish ports, but then having third parties purchase as they head to Israel. Ideologically, however, Erdogan’s hatred of Israel and Jews may trump his willingness to find a workaround.
Much more likely is that Turkey will demand Azerbaijan drop its ties with Israel. As far as the Turks are concerned, the time is ripe. Having already ethnically cleansed Nagorno-Karabakh, Erdogan may argue Azerbaijan does not need Israeli weapons. Here, Erdogan will have ideological motives as well as his personal ones: His son-in-law manufactures Turkish drones and weaponry, so cutting off Azerbaijan’s trade with Israel allows Turkey to profit.
Israelis have been among Azerbaijan’s greatest cheerleaders, even as the Aliyev dictatorship grew erratic. Alas, Jerusalem’s previous enthusiasm in hindsight may appear to be a huge strategic error, akin to the Reagan administration’s outreach to Saddam Hussein. Iran poses an existential threat to Israel, but Turkey’s threat is grave and growing. Just as Iran has its proxies against Israel, Turkey will demand Azerbaijan squeeze Israel.
There is no time to waste. Israel must calibrate its economic policy toward the future and reality rather than wishful thinking and the past. The Israel-Azerbaijan relationship is on deathwatch even if neither Jerusalem nor Baku will admit it. Erdogan is ready to pull the plug.
